Commanders 20, Cowboys 37 — Week 2: Three Throws From the One

First and goal at the Dallas one, 12 seconds left in the first half, Washington down 17 to 10 and out of timeouts. The Commanders had gone 12 plays from their own 35 to get there, and the win probability model had them at 42 percent; it never gave them better than 45 all afternoon. Jayden Daniels threw incomplete for Terry McLaurin. Eight seconds. Incomplete for Brown. Three seconds. On third and goal he threw incomplete to the right, the play-by-play notes that he was injured on the play, and the half ended with no points. That last snap cost 13 points of win probability, one of the two biggest swings of the game, and Washington went to the locker room at 25 percent. Marcus Mariota took over at quarterback after halftime. Washington lost 37 to 20 in Dallas, never led, and is oh and two.

Start with the pass defense, because that is where 37 points came from. Dallas ran 33 pass plays and they were worth +15.1 expected points added — expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, that ranks 20-sixth per play; only Arizona and Miami have been worse. Here is the comparison that stings. Last season this pass defense ranked thirtieth of 32, and at the rate it allowed then, those same 33 plays would have been worth about +6.6. Sunday was more than double that. Dallas completed 26 passes and threw five incompletions, with four touchdowns. Four completions went for 20 yards or more and every one of them went to CeeDee Lamb: 23, 38, 35, and the 24-yard touchdown that ended it. The one interception Washington caught, by Cross in the end zone on third and 10 from the Washington 11, was wiped out by a defensive offside, and Dallas kicked a field goal two snaps later. The two sacks were the good plays. Javon Kinlaw dropped Dak Prescott for a loss of nine on first down, and that drive became the only Dallas punt. Chaisson got him on third and three at the Washington 22 in the third quarter, which turned a touchdown chance into a 44-yard field goal.

The drive chart says the same thing a different way. Dallas had eight possessions and scored on seven of them: four touchdowns, three field goals, one punt. Washington's defense got off the field on four of 11 third downs, a stop rate that ranks 20-sixth so far this week, with only Miami and Detroit behind it. Dallas was four for four on third downs needing one or two yards. 37 points allowed is the second-most of the 28 teams that have played; only Detroit has given up more. And the one thing a fan can repeat on Monday: Washington has not forced a turnover in either of its two games.

The run defense was the unit that held. 21 Dallas rush plays gained 66 yards, tied with Buffalo for the fifth-fewest allowed so far this week, and 13 of the 21 gained three yards or fewer. By expected points those plays were worth −2.9, which ranks sixteenth of 28 per play, the middle of the league. Against this unit's own history that is a step forward. Last season the run defense ranked 20-eighth, and at that rate these 21 plays would have been worth about +1.6. Last week in Philadelphia it allowed a hundred 38 rushing yards and ranked 20-fifth of 32. The only Dallas run of 10 yards or more that counted was an 11-yard Prescott scramble on the opening drive.

On offense the ground game is the headline number, and it needs an asterisk. A hundred 82 rushing yards, second so far this week behind only Buffalo. A success rate, the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule, of 53 percent, third so far this week behind Baltimore and Buffalo. +3.4 expected points on 32 rush plays, where last season's rate, ninth in the league, would have made them worth about plus point six. Now the asterisk. Seven of those 32 were quarterback scrambles, and the seven gained 72 yards and were worth +5 and a half expected points. The 25 designed runs gained a hundred 10 yards and were worth about −2. Six of the seven scrambles were Daniels in the first half: 18 yards on third and two on the last play of the first quarter, 20 up the middle in the second, 14 with 51 seconds left before the break. The first half was 21 rush plays for a hundred 29 yards. The second half was 11 for 53, and the last five of those came after the final Dallas touchdown, down 17.

The passing game was average, and that is a fair word for it. 35 pass plays, +1.2 expected points, fifteenth of the 28 teams so far this week, on 207 yards with no sacks taken and no interceptions. Third down was better than that: eight of 14, fifth so far this week, after five of 15 a week ago. The best of them came at third and 18 from the Washington 22 late in the first quarter, Daniels deep right to McLaurin for 24, worth about six and a half points of win probability on a drive that ended in a field goal. One that got away: second and two at the Dallas 34, eight-oh-one left in the second quarter, a 34-yard touchdown to McLaurin was reversed on replay to an incompletion. Washington scored anyway, four plays later, Daniels to Diggs from the four.

Near the goal line the ledger is thin. 11 red-zone plays, two touchdowns. The first trip had second and five at the Dallas nine, Daniels fumbled, Washington recovered at the 20, the play ended 13 yards back, and the drive ended in a 27-yard field goal. The third trip was the three throws from the one. Three trips inside the Dallas 10 produced 10 points.

Then the play that closed the door. Seven 15 left in the third quarter, Dallas had just kicked a field goal to make it 20 to 13, and on first and 10 from the Washington 24 Mariota threw short left to Brown, who lost six yards and the ball. Barham forced it, Winters recovered at the 18 and stepped out at the 13. 13 points of win probability, 23 percent down to 11. Two plays later Prescott hit Jake Ferguson for 12 yards and it was 27 to 13. The next Washington drive reached the Dallas 23, a holding penalty made it third and 16, and a 51-yard field goal went wide right.

Now the longer view, for anyone joining this week. Washington went five and 12 last season. The pass defense ranked thirtieth, the run defense 20-eighth, the third-down defense in the bottom third; the run game ranked ninth and the passing game twentieth. Week 1 was a 24 to 22 loss in Philadelphia, and that game's figures were kinder to the defense: 28 pass plays allowed for +1.3 expected points, twentieth of 32, and eight stops on 14 third downs. Sunday took that back and then some, with a pass defense worse than last season's rate. The run game has gone the other way, ninth last year, sixteenth last week, fifth so far this week, with the caveat about who was doing the running. Two games do not settle any of it, and the numbers cannot tell you who plays quarterback next week.

Washington hosts Seattle next Sunday afternoon. Watch the pass defense on third down, and watch what the designed run game looks like on its own.

That's your Commanders — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Commanders show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._