Commanders 13, Colts 30 — Week 4: Two of Fifteen on Third Down

Fourth and one at the Washington 46, eight 34 left in the second quarter, Washington up six to nothing. Craig Reynolds went up the middle and got nothing, and the Colts took over at the Commanders' 46. By win probability — the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — that snap cost Washington about six points, and Indianapolis went the 46 yards in nine plays for the touchdown that put it ahead for good. The Colts beat the Commanders 30 to 13. Washington is one and three.

It had started the other way. On the Colts' second snap of the game, Oweh sacked Daniel Jones, forced the fumble and recovered it himself at the Indianapolis 21. Washington's next possession reached the Colts' seven on a 35-yard catch by Jacory Croskey-Merritt. A short field and a long catch, and two Drew Stevens field goals, from 31 29. Washington ran four snaps inside the Colts' 20 all day and scored no touchdowns on any of them.

The passing game opens on success rate, because it explains the drive chart: 28 percent of Washington's 39 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. −9.5 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, against what that situation was already worth. At the rate Washington passed over the first three weeks, those 39 plays would have been worth about +3.7. Marcus Mariota threw four passes and was sacked on third and goal from the five; Athan Kaliakmanis threw every pass after that, in his first action of the season. Kaliakmanis went 15 of 33 for a hundred 86 yards, a touchdown and an interception. 22 of Washington's 37 charted throws were catchable, 60 percent, 20-sixth of the 30 charted offenses this week, against 70 percent over the first three weeks. The Colts mostly rushed four, sending five or more on six of 41 dropbacks, so this was not a blitz problem. And the motion went away: Washington moved someone before the snap on 30 percent of charted plays, 20-ninth of 30, after 43 percent across the first three weeks.

The best of it came off the fake. Kaliakmanis completed four of eight play-action throws for a hundred seven yards; without play-action he went 11 of 25 for 79. The biggest was the touchdown. First and 10 at the Colts' 47, 10 47 left in the third quarter, Washington down 17 to six: Kaliakmanis deep left to Treylon Burks, all 47 yards, touchdown. +4.2 expected points and 13 points of win probability, Washington's biggest swing of the game. The worst came at the start of that same half: third and 17 from the Washington 24, short right for Antonio Williams, intercepted by Carlies and returned to the Washington 20. On the fourth snap after it, Jonathan Taylor scored. Two of 15 on third down, 13 percent.

The run game opens on the box it faced, far heavier than in the first three weeks. The Colts showed six or fewer defenders on five of Washington's 20 designed runs, 25 percent, 20-seventh of the 30 charted offenses, after 55 percent across the first three weeks. 22 rush plays went for a hundred yards and −5.8 expected points, 27 percent of them successful; at the rate of the first three weeks they would have been worth about −1.3. 35 of the hundred yards came on one Mariota keeper around left end on the second drive. Croskey-Merritt carried nine times for 15 yards. Austin Ekeler, four carries for 29, three of them successful, was the one Washington back on the positive side by expected points.

The pass defense was Washington's best unit. −13.4 expected points on 36 Colts pass plays — on defense, a big negative number is the good direction. At the rate this pass defense allowed over the first three weeks, those same plays would have been worth about +7.2. A hundred 43 passing yards, no passing touchdowns, 31 percent successful. Washington sent five or more rushers on 18 of the Colts' 36 dropbacks, half of them, fourth-highest of the 30 charted defenses this week, and Jones's throws were often off target: 20 of 34 catchable, 59 percent, after opponents managed 80 percent against this secondary over the first three weeks. Off play-action Jones went three of eight for one yard. The takeaway in the second quarter: third and 10 at the Washington 44, short right for Ashton Dulin, intercepted by Douglas at the 34.

The run defense gave the game away. 57 percent of the Colts' 28 runs were successful plays, for a hundred 31 yards, three touchdowns and +7.9 expected points. At the rate of the first three weeks, when this was the stingier half of the defense, those runs would have been worth about −3.8. Washington loaded the box against it: six or fewer on seven of 28 designed runs, 25 percent, against 42 percent across the first three weeks. The Colts still went 4.7 yards a designed run, after opponents had managed 3.2. The drive that settled it began at the Washington 48 with a minute 35 left in the third, Colts up 20 to 13. Seven runs in nine snaps: Taylor for four and five, Jones for one on third and one, then Taylor for six, 12 12 to the Washington 12, and Jones around right end from the four on third and two. 27 to 13.

The turning point is the Colts' first touchdown drive, the one that started with the failed fourth and one. It needed one more break. Third and 14 at the Washington 30, five 13 left in the half: Jones short right to Josh Downs for five, and Robertson was flagged for unnecessary roughness, 12 more yards and a first down at the 13. Eight and a half points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game for Indianapolis. Two Seth McGowan runs later, Taylor went around left end for the touchdown. Washington's reply in the third quarter: Dyami Brown caught a 48-yarder to the Colts' 36, and on third and nine Walley sacked Kaliakmanis for nine yards. That cost eight points of win probability, and Washington punted. On the next possession a short pass to Williams went the length of the field for a touchdown, and an illegal shift wiped it out. 12 drives: a touchdown, two field goals, an interception, three turnovers on downs and five punts.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Burks, 11.2 on one catch for 47 and the touchdown. Kaliakmanis, 11 even. Brown, eight, on three catches for 65. Stefon Diggs led the team with nine targets and caught five for 35, six points; Croskey-Merritt also six. For the Colts, Taylor had 22.2 on 20 carries for 95 two touchdowns.

What repeats. Last week's notebook said to watch whether the five-plus share would keep climbing. It held at half — 50 percent, above the 47 of the first three weeks — and this time it came with −13.4 expected points allowed through the air. The other line in the notebook, the loaded box holding opponents under two and a half a carry, broke: the boxes were heavier still, and Indianapolis ran through them for three touchdowns. New to the notebook: a quarterback change, pre-snap motion down from 43 percent to 30, and a play-action split of a hundred seven yards on eight throws against 79 on 25. Watch whether the motion comes back, and whether the fake keeps carrying the passing game.

That's your Commanders — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Commanders show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._