Commanders 27, Giants 27 — Week 5: A 14-Point Fourth-Quarter Lead Gone

Washington tied New York 27-27 at home after overtime, and it had the game won twice. Jayden Daniels scrambled 26 yards for a touchdown on third and 2 and threw the two-point conversion to Terry McLaurin to make it 27-13 with 11:05 left. The Giants scored on fourth and 8 at 7:24 and again at 1:48, when Jameis Winston hit Malik Nabers deep middle for 17 yards. In overtime the defense took the ball back on a fumble at its own 23 with 2:00 left, and the offense got to the Giants 24 before the clock ran out on a sack.

The passing game was the weak half of the offense, and expected points added (EPA) shows it: what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, against what the situation was already worth. Washington's 30 pass plays were worth -3.4 EPA, -0.11 a play, against about even through Week 4, and 40% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Daniels threw all 25 passes and completed 17 for 199 yards, with no touchdowns and no interceptions. The throws were not the problem. 17 of 25 were catchable, 68%, against 67.2% through Week 4; none were dropped and none were charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught. The rush was. New York sent five or more on 24 of 37 dropbacks, 64.9%, against the 19.9% this offense saw through Week 4, and Andru Phillips sacked Daniels twice on third down. Chig Okonkwo caught 4 of 6 targets for 60 yards and McLaurin 4 of 4 for 62.

The run game was Smashed, and the box count explains it. New York played six or fewer defenders in the box on 16 of 22 designed runs, 72.7%, against 49% through Week 4. Washington's 29 rush plays, scrambles included, were worth +9.1 EPA, +0.31 a play against -0.10 through Week 4, for 203 yards, three touchdowns and a 48.3% success rate. Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran 11 times for 82 yards and scored up the middle on the opening drive. Daniels did the rest by leaving the pocket, 12 times on 37 dropbacks after 20 on 61 through Week 4, and ran 9 times for 103 yards and two touchdowns. The first one broke the game open. Up 12-6 with 7:56 left in the third, second and 6 at the Giants 38, Daniels scrambled straight up the middle for the touchdown, a snap worth +3.7 EPA and 9.9 points of win probability.

The pass defense was Muffed by volume. New York's 56 pass plays were worth +10.6 EPA, +0.19 a play against +0.06 allowed through Week 4; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. Half of them were successful. Winston went 33 of 54 for 326 yards and three touchdowns, and none of his 54 throws was charted interception-worthy, after opponents threw 3 against this defense through Week 4. Isaiah Likely caught 11 of 13 targets for 94 yards and two touchdowns, and Nabers 11 of 20 for 121 and one. Washington sent five or more on 25 of 60 dropbacks, 41.7%, a little under its 47.4% through Week 4. The rush did make the defense's first takeaway. Up 9-3 with 2:08 left in the half, second and 8, K'Lavon Chaisson sacked Winston and knocked the ball loose, and Tim Settle recovered at the Giants 28, a snap worth -5.2 EPA to New York. Drew Stevens kicked a 40-yard field goal to make it 12-3.

The run defense held its side, and the EPA allowed says so: New York's 27 rush plays were worth -5.2 EPA, -0.19 a play against -0.01 allowed through Week 4. On defense, a big negative is good. The Giants' 23 designed runs gained 76 yards, even though Washington showed six or fewer in the box on 11 of them, 47.8%, against 35.8% through Week 4. Frankie Luvu stopped J.J. McCarthy for no gain on third and 2 at the Washington 37 early in the third, and New York settled for a 56-yard field goal. Late in the third, first and goal at the 1, Sonny Styles was in on an incompletion to Nabers and then dropped Najee Harris for a 2-yard loss before Likely scored on third down.

The game turned in the fourth quarter, on the snap that started the comeback. Up 27-13 with 7:24 left, Washington had New York at fourth and 8 at its own 17. Winston threw short middle to Likely, who was ruled to have fumbled at the 1, Rasul Douglas recovering for a touchback; replay reversed it to a 17-yard touchdown, +4.5 EPA. With 1:56 left and Washington up 27-20, Theo Johnson caught a 14-yarder to the 17 and Nabers scored on the next snap. In overtime, Odafe Oweh's face-mask penalty added 15 yards to New York's first snap and Dominic Zvada missed from 46. With 2:00 left, first and 10 at the Washington 24, Daron Payne stripped Cam Skattebo and Shy Tuttle recovered. A 13-yard throw to Treylon Burks reached the Giants 26, worth 10.7 points of win probability, and Rachaad White ran for 2 to the 24 with 55 seconds left. There was no kick. The red zone was the same story all day: 6 snaps inside the Giants 20, no touchdowns. All three touchdowns came from 26 yards or farther.

The scheme moved more and spread the runs out. Pre-snap motion came on 45.7% of charted plays, against 39.8% through Week 4. Run-pass options rose to 5, 8.5% of snaps, from 5.8%. Play-action held near normal, 24.3% of dropbacks against 22.4%, and Daniels went 4 of 6 for 57 yards off it, 13 of 19 for 142 without. No-huddle fell to 5.1% from 8.9%.

Last week's notebook asked whether the motion would come back and whether the fake would keep carrying the passing game. The motion came back, to 45.7%. The fake carried less because it had to: Daniels' 4 of 6 for 57 off play-action beat his 6 of 12 for 46 through Week 4, but the offense ran on the run game and his legs. The one to watch next: whether defenses keep sending five or more at Daniels after he turned a 64.9% rate into 103 rushing yards, and whether the pass defense can hold up when a team throws 56 times.

That's your Commanders, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Commanders on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._