Commanders 17, 49ers 23 — Week 6: Fourth and 3 at the 17

Washington lost 23-17 at San Francisco on Monday night, and the second half nearly undid the first. The 49ers scored touchdowns on three of their five first-half drives and led 20-3 at the break, when Washington's win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, stood at 8.4%. Two touchdown drives made it 23-17 with 9:22 left, and the Commanders had the ball at the 49ers 17 with two minutes to go. Their nine drives produced two touchdowns, a field goal, two turnovers on downs and two three-and-outs.

The passing game beat its own standard, and success rate leads the case: 52.4% of 42 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, the highest rate in any of Washington's six games. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at +2.9, +0.07 a play against -0.02 through Week 5. Jayden Daniels completed 29 of 40 for 300 yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions, and was sacked four times for 39 yards. His 14 first-half dropbacks were worth -5.3 EPA; his 31 after the break, +7.0. Chig Okonkwo caught all 7 of his targets for 69 yards, Treylon Burks 4 of 6 for 66 and Stefon Diggs 6 of 7 for 44 and a score. The throw that made it a game came down 23-10 with 9:53 left: third and 8 at the 49ers 41, Daniels hit Antonio Williams short left for 23 yards, and a roughing-the-passer flag on Osa Odighizuwa moved the ball to the 9, +3.25 EPA. Rachaad White caught the touchdown on the next snap. Terry McLaurin's 27-yard catch on the first snap was his only target; he was hurt on a sack late in the first quarter.

The run game barely played and lost ground when it did, and EPA per play shows it: 16 rush plays, the fewest in any of its six games, were worth -3.2 EPA, -0.20 a play against -0.01 through Week 5. They gained 54 yards at a 37.5% success rate. White ran 7 times for 27 and Jeremy McNichols 5 for 13. The longest run of the night did not count.

The pass defense held, and on defense a negative number is the good direction: San Francisco's 31 pass plays were worth -1.6 EPA, -0.05 a play against +0.09 allowed through Week 5, and only 35.5% succeeded. Brock Purdy completed 21 of 29 for 264 yards and a touchdown, and Shy Tuttle and Odafe Oweh sacked him once each. The yards came in chunks: Mike Evans caught 3 for 94, 54 of them on one throw to the Washington 18 that set up the second touchdown. The defense also made the only takeaway. Down 13-3 with 9:11 left in the half, Christian McCaffrey caught a short pass for 12 yards to the 21, K'Lavon Chaisson forced the ball out and Frankie Luvu recovered at the 19, -4.36 EPA for San Francisco.

The run defense was Muffed, and total EPA allowed measures it: San Francisco's 29 rush plays were worth +14.0, +0.48 a play against -0.05 allowed through Week 5, the most this defense has given up on the ground in any of its six games. Here a positive number is bad, and 72.4% of those runs succeeded, for 126 yards and two touchdowns. McCaffrey ran 16 times for 64 and scored both from a yard out. Purdy ran 5 times for 28, and all five succeeded. The 49ers ran 8 times on third or fourth down and converted 7. The one that set the tone came up 7-3 with 5:42 left in the first: fourth and 3 at the Washington 11, Purdy scrambled left for 7 to the 4, +3.1 EPA and 6.5 points of win probability. McCaffrey scored three snaps later.

The game turned on the last real drive, down 23-17. Burks' 30-yard catch deep left reached the 49ers 31 with 5:03 left, worth 8.9 points of win probability. Moments later McNichols ran 31 yards to the end zone, but a face-mask penalty on Chris Paul wiped it out and cost 15 yards. A fourth-and-8 sack was erased by an illegal-contact flag on Ashtyn Davis, worth 18.8 points of win probability, and Burks caught 7 more to the 17. On third and 3 McNichols was stopped for no gain. On fourth and 3 with 2:00 left, Daniels threw deep right for Burks and it fell incomplete: -3.0 EPA and 22.1 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. A fair-catch interference flag gave Washington one more try from its own 46 with 52 seconds left; it reached the 49ers 28 before an intentional-grounding penalty and an 18-yard sack ended it. The offense converted 3 of 12 third downs and 1 of 3 fourth downs.

Last week's notebook asked whether the pass defense could hold up when a team throws 56 times. San Francisco threw on 31 plays, and the pass defense allowed -0.05 a play, its second-best game of the season. The one to watch next: whether a run defense that allowed +0.48 a play here, against -0.05 through Week 5, gets back to its standard, and whether a passing game that came alive after halftime can do it from the first snap.

That's your Commanders, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Commanders on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._