Commanders 13, Rams 20 — Week 9: 10-3 Up, Then the Sacks Came

The Commanders lost 20-13 to the Rams at home on Sunday and fell to 2-5-1. They led 10-3 for most of the second quarter, lost the lead on a Rams touchdown early in the fourth, and finished at the Rams 20 when the last play of the game, a 20-yard catch by Chig Okonkwo, ended in two fumbles. Nick Cross had a fumble recovery and an interception, and the defense stopped 11 of 14 third downs. The offense scored one touchdown on 11 drives.

The passing game was a first-half unit, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, splits it in two: 12 pass plays before the break worth +1.3, 26 after it worth -7.1. For the game it was -5.9, -0.15 a play against -0.01 through Week 8. Jayden Daniels completed 24 of 35 for 273 yards and a touchdown without an interception, but was sacked four times, three by Myles Garrett, and lost a fumble. The touchdown came on the first snap of the second quarter: first and 10 at his own 48, tied 3-3, Daniels threw short right to Rachaad White, who took it 45 yards to the Rams 7, +2.6 EPA. Van Jefferson caught the 7-yard touchdown on the next snap.

The run game found nothing, and success rate shows how little: 5 of 19 rush plays, 26.3%, gained what the situation asked for, against 41.0% through Week 8. They gained 60 yards and were worth -4.2 EPA, -0.22 a play against -0.015. White ran 7 times for 28, Austin Ekeler 8 times for 16. On third and 1 at the Washington 29 in the third, Ekeler was stopped for no gain and the drive ended in a punt.

The pass defense held its ground and took the ball away twice, and EPA allowed is close to even: the Rams' 43 pass plays were worth -0.8, -0.02 a play against +0.02 allowed through Week 8; on defense a negative number is good. Only 39.5% of them succeeded. Matthew Stafford completed 26 of 43 for 228 yards, and Puka Nacua caught 14 of 19 targets for 150. Up 10-3 with 2:46 left in the half, second and 19 at the Washington 41, K'Lavon Chaisson forced a Nacua fumble after a short catch and Cross recovered and returned it 15 yards to the Rams 40: -4.1 EPA for the Rams' offense and 12.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. In the third, on third and 15 at the Rams 12, Cross intercepted a throw for Nacua at the 27, and Drew Stevens' 41-yard field goal tied it 13-13. Frankie Luvu had the only sack.

The run defense played to its average: the Rams' 29 rush plays were worth +0.9 EPA, +0.03 a play against +0.03 allowed through Week 8, and 48.3% succeeded, for 124 yards. Blake Corum carried four times for 29 yards on the opening drive of the third quarter and scored from the 1.

The game turned on the very next snap after Cross's fumble return. Up 10-3 at the Rams 40, a 15-yard White run came back on a holding penalty, and on first and 20 at midfield Garrett sacked Daniels and forced a fumble that Omar Speights recovered at the Washington 46: -4.3 EPA and 12.2 points of win probability back to the Rams. They kicked a field goal with 5 seconds left, 10-6. Tied 13-13, the Rams went 65 yards in 12 plays and scored on Nacua's 7-yard catch early in the fourth, 17.4 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Down 20-13 with 2:31 left, third and 5 at the Rams 38, Garrett sacked Daniels for a 12-yard loss, and the fourth-and-17 throw for Jefferson fell incomplete.

Last week's episode asked whether a pass rush that got home five times against the Eagles would keep doing it. It got home once, Luvu's 9-yard sack in the second quarter. The one to watch next: whether a passing game worth -7.1 EPA on 26 second-half pass plays can carry its first-half form, +1.3 on 12, through four quarters.

That's your Commanders, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Commanders on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._