C.J. Stroud — Week 3: Eight of Twelve in the Fourth

19 to 17, Colts, 11 seconds left, first and 10 at the Houston 31 after Jaylin Noel's kickoff return. C.J. Stroud threw deep right to Dalton Schultz, who was pushed out at the Houston 48 after 17 yards. +10.3 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. With five seconds left a short throw to the right fell incomplete, and with one second left a throw deep right, 50 yards in the air, fell incomplete, and Houston had lost for the third time in three games.

Most of Stroud's afternoon came in that last quarter. Through three quarters he was eight of 15 for 54 yards. In the fourth he was eight of 12 for a hundred 13, and he led the drive that took the lead. Down 16 to 10, with four 40 left, Houston took over at its own 46 after a Daniel Jones fumble. Stroud threw 17 yards deep right to Xavier Hutchinson, then 15 short middle to Kayshon Boutte on first and 10 at the Indianapolis 27, the largest win-probability gain on any Houston pass or run of the game, then six more to Boutte, and Woody Marks ran the last six yards in two carries. The extra point made it 17 to 16 with a minute 48 left.

The line: 16 completions on 27 throws, a hundred 67 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, three sacks, and −3.1 expected points added on 30 pass plays — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position. The touchdown was one yard short left to Foster Moreau with four 34 left in the half, down 10 to nothing, after a 10-yard catch by David Montgomery with a face-mask penalty added, and then a pass-interference call on the Colts, had moved the ball from the 27 to the one. 27 throws are his fewest in three games, after 38 55. Two of the three sacks came on third down in the first quarter. On third down he had eight pass plays: two sacks, five completions on six throws, and one conversion, 20 yards deep middle to Jared Wayne on third and five with nine 48 left, +2.0, Houston's best play of the day by expected points. The other four completions came up short of the line to gain. He also scrambled for eight on third and eight in the second quarter and kept it for two on third and one, both first downs. Six throws traveled 20 or more yards in the air; two were caught, for 48 yards.

Hutchinson was thrown to six times, Moreau and Wayne four each, Schultz three. Nico Collins missed a second straight game with a hamstring injury, per NBC Sports.

Back in June the preview's read on Stroud was that the last two seasons, 20-first at the position by rate both years, are the sample now, from a passer whose profile is pocket-first. Week 1 was 274 yards and two touchdowns undone by two strip-sacks. Week 2 was 55 throws and no touchdowns. Sunday was the lightest volume of the three, and most of it came in one quarter. Three games: 72 of a hundred 20, 794 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, 10 sacks. No interceptions is the part of the line that has held; the sacks are the part that keeps coming back. Three games settle little. Houston is home to the Cowboys on Sunday the fourth.

_Data via nflverse._