Kenneth Walker — Week 2: Twenty-Two Yards on Third and One
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 21
Walker carried 24 times for 117 yards and caught six of ten targets for 61, and his 22-yard catch on third and one with 1:30 left in overtime was worth 36.1 points of win probability, the largest swing on any pass or run in the game. He was stopped for no gain on three straight carries from the Indianapolis one in the third quarter and did not score, in a 33–30 overtime win over the Colts.
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30 to 30, a minute 30 left in overtime, third and one at the Indianapolis 46. Patrick Mahomes threw short left to Kenneth Walker, a ball that did not travel past the line of scrimmage, and Walker took it 22 yards to the Colts' 24. +1.6 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 36.1 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. No pass or run by either team moved the game more. Walker carried once more, left guard for two, and Harrison Butker hit from 40 yards with one second left.
The line: 24 carries, a hundred 17 yards, no touchdown, seven first downs, 13 of the 24 successful, +0.8 expected points on the carries; 10 targets, six catches, 61 yards, two first downs, −0.5 on the targets. The carries went 19, one, three, one, seven, eight, one, 12, 10, four, nothing, nothing, nothing, five, four, eight, five, one, seven, one, nine, four, five, two. Six before halftime for 39 yards; 18 after it for 78, seven of those in overtime for 29. The 19 was Kansas City's first offensive snap, down seven to nothing. The three nothings were consecutive: first, second and third and goal from the Indianapolis one, midway through the third quarter, down 20 to 17, right after Tyquan Thornton's 45-yard catch. On fourth down Mahomes threw the touchdown to Jalen Royals. Five carries inside the 20 gained four yards. A three-yard run in the second quarter came back on a holding penalty. The catches went six, 11, 10, nine, three and 22; 54 of the 61 yards came after the catch. He was thrown three third downs and caught one, the 22-yarder. One that fell incomplete was third and nine at the Indianapolis 13 with five 18 left in overtime, −25.4 points of win probability, and Kansas City kicked the field goal that the Colts then matched.
The split: Walker 24 of 27 designed runs, Emmett Johnson two, and defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga one. Kansas City called six designed runs before halftime and 21 after it, overtime included. 10 targets were second on the team to Travis Kelce's 11, and 30 touches were the most on the field, two more than Jonathan Taylor.
Back in June the preview leaned watchlist on Walker — 20-ninth among running backs per game last season in Seattle, priced eleventh, signed to lead the Kansas City backfield — and named the goal-line role and the passing-down work as the things to watch. Week 1 was 23 carries for a hundred 73, a touchdown on the ground and another through the air, and both of the Chiefs' fourth-down conversions, and that episode said fourth-down calls are coaching decisions that tend to repeat. Sunday night they did not. Fourth and one at the Indianapolis 48 went to Tonga, fourth and goal went to the air, and the goal-line role that was his produced three carries and no yards. The passing-down half went the other way: 10 targets after six, 16 in two games. 47 carries in two weeks says the lead job is not in question. Two games settle little about who gets the ball at the one. The Chiefs are at the Dolphins on Sunday the 20-seventh.
_Data via nflverse._
When Kenneth Walker's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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