Kenneth Walker — Week 3: Two Scores, Two Stops at the Twelve

Nothing to nothing, 12 57 left in the first quarter, third and one at the Miami 10, the fourth Kansas City snap of the game. Kenneth Walker went up the middle for 10 yards and the touchdown. +2.2 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position. Early in the second quarter, tied at seven, second and five at the Miami five, Patrick Mahomes threw short middle to Walker, two yards behind the line, and Walker carried it in. +4.3 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. The Chiefs led the rest of the way.

Then the Miami 12. Up 14 to seven, six 58 left in the half, third and one: Walker up the middle, no gain. Fourth and one, an extra lineman reported as eligible, Walker up the middle again, no gain, and the ball went over on downs. −3.6 expected points and −10.6 points of win probability, the costliest Chiefs run of the day by both measures.

The line: 18 carries, 70 yards, one rushing touchdown, four first downs, seven of the 18 successful, −4.9 expected points on the carries; two targets, two catches, three yards, one receiving touchdown. The carries went four, 10, six, six, three, −1, nothing, nothing, 22, two, one, −1, eight, four, 15, −6, −2, −1. 10 before halftime for 52 yards, eight after for 18. The 22 was the first snap after Miami's lost fumble, from the Kansas City 25 with three 10 left in the half; two snaps later Mahomes was intercepted. The 15 came early in the fourth quarter, on a drive that reached first and goal at the Miami eight, where Walker lost six; a short throw to him on third and 14 lost two more, and Harrison Butker kicked a 34-yard field goal. Seven carries started inside the Miami 21 of them scored. His two third-down carries were the touchdown and the stop at the 12.

The split: 24 Kansas City designed runs, 18 for Walker and six for Emmett Johnson, who took every carry on the last possession. 18 is the fewest carries of Walker's three games. Two targets on 23 the Chiefs credited to a receiver, after 10 in Week 2; Rashee Rice had nine. Kansas City's runs came out at −6.2 expected points, 20-sixth of the 28 teams that have played this week, with the Rams, Broncos, Eagles and Bears still to play.

Back in June the preview leaned watchlist on Walker — 20-ninth among running backs per game last season in Seattle, signed to lead the Kansas City backfield — and named the goal-line role and the passing-down work as the things to watch. Week 1 was a hundred 73 yards, a touchdown each way and both Chiefs fourth downs converted. Week 2 was three stops from the one and 10 targets. Sunday the short-yardage question came out both ways inside one half: two touchdowns from the 10 and in, then third and one and fourth and one at the 12 with nothing gained. The passing-down half fell from 10 targets to two. Three games: 65 carries, 360 yards, four touchdowns, 18 targets. The lead job is not in question; three games settle little about who gets the ball on the short downs. Kansas City is at the Raiders on Sunday the fourth.

_Data via nflverse._