Matthew Stafford — Week 8: 157 Yards in a 15-Point Win

Matthew Stafford had one of his quieter days against the Chargers, and the Rams won anyway: 17 of 25 for 157 yards, a touchdown and an interception, sacked once, in a 24-9 win at home. Over 26 dropbacks he was worth -4.8 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position: -0.19 per dropback, ahead of only his -0.22 in Week 1. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -9.0. Puka Nacua was the target on 12 of his 25 throws.

His best work came down 9-3 with 1:55 left in the half. On second and 1 at his own 43, he went deep left to Tutu Atwell for 40 yards to the Chargers 17, +1.5 EPA. Two snaps later, second and 7 at the 14, he hit Nacua short over the middle to the 1, +2.2 EPA and 6.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, and Kyren Williams scored next for 10-9. The touchdown was his in the third: up 17-9, two plays after Trent McDuffie's interception, second and 6 at the Chargers 18, a short pass to the left that Nacua took in for 18 yards, +2.2 EPA and 24-9.

The interception came on the first possession. After a false start, third and 6 at his own 37, he threw short left for Konata Mumpfield, and Tarheeb Still picked it off at the Rams 47, -4.1 EPA and 8.6 points of win probability. The Chargers went three-and-out. Two of his third-down completions to Nacua lost yards, and the Rams converted 3 of 11 third downs.

The rate was well under his season. Through Week 7 he had +35.8 EPA on 292 dropbacks, +0.12 per dropback, a CPOE of +1.5, 14 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions.

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_Data via nflverse._