Matthew Stafford — Week 9: 26 of 43, Better After Halftime

Matthew Stafford found his footing after halftime against the Commanders: 26 of 43 for 228 yards, a touchdown and an interception, sacked once, in a 20-13 win. His 43 pass plays were worth -0.8 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position: -3.2 on 23 before the break and +2.4 on 20 after it. A Puka Nacua fumble after a catch cost -4.1 of that total.

The drive that decided it opened tied 13-13 late in the third. Third and 5 at his own 40, he hit Konata Mumpfield over the middle for 13 yards. After a false start left third and 11 at the Washington 36 with 19 seconds left in the quarter, he went deep right to Nacua for 19 yards to the 17: +2.9 EPA and 10.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. On second and 7 at the 7, he threw short left to Nacua for the touchdown, +2.1 EPA and 17.4 points of win probability.

The miss came up 13-10 in the third. A false start left first and 15 at his own 12, two throws fell incomplete, and on third and 15 his short throw for Nacua was intercepted by Nick Cross at the 27, -2.8 EPA and 10.5 points of win probability. Washington kicked the tying field goal four snaps later.

It was below his season rate. Through Week 8 his 314 pass plays were worth +19.5 EPA, +0.06 a play, with a completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, of +0.6; here it was -0.02 a play and a CPOE of -4.2. The interception was his ninth of the season.

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_Data via nflverse._