Travis Kelce — Week 2: Nine Catches, a Hundred One Yards

Seven to three, Colts, four 40 left in the first quarter, second and seven at the Indianapolis 13, two snaps after Kristian Fulton intercepted Daniel Jones. Patrick Mahomes threw short right to Travis Kelce, six yards in the air, 13 yards and the touchdown. +2.1 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 5.8 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. Kansas City led 10 to seven.

The line: 11 targets, nine catches, a hundred one yards, one touchdown, seven first downs, +5.1 expected points on the targets. 66 of the hundred one yards came after the catch. The catches went 13 for the score, 11, five, −1, 11, 16, 18, 17 11. The 16 was third and five at the Kansas City 25 with four 40 left in the third quarter, up 24 to 20, short middle, +2.1. The 18, later on that drive, came on a ball thrown three yards behind the line on second and 10, to the Indianapolis 14. The 17 came with 11 seconds left in regulation, tied at 27, from the Kansas City 29 to the 46, one snap before Rashee Rice's 31-yarder. The last 11 was second and 10 at the Indianapolis 40 in overtime, on the drive to the first field goal. The two incompletions: deep right on third and three at the Indianapolis 33 with 12 52 left in the second quarter, 21 yards in the air, −2.1 and the costliest Chiefs pass or run of the night by expected points, followed by a missed 51-yard field goal; and first and 10 on that overtime drive, one snap before the 11. Two third-down targets, one catch, one conversion. One target inside the 20, the touchdown. Four targets before halftime, seven after.

11 targets led the Chiefs, one more than Kenneth Walker, and led every player in the game; so did the hundred one yards. On 43 credited targets it was a share of 26 percent. Noah Gray, the other tight end thrown to, had one target.

Back in June the preview made no call on Kelce — the tenth tight end off the board, a real volume floor and a ceiling made of memory — and named two things to watch: September targets per game, with six or more meaning the identity held, and how Kansas City used its tight ends in the red zone, because age shows in target quality before quantity. Week 1 was five targets, one at the line of scrimmage, and none in the red zone. Sunday night was 11, with a red-zone touchdown. 16 targets in two games is eight a game, over the line, though one of the two games ran five quarters and 47 throws. Two games settle little about a month, but the count moved the right way. The Chiefs are at the Dolphins on Sunday the 20-seventh.

_Data via nflverse._