Travis Kelce — Week 3: Two Catches, Fifty-Nine Yards
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 28
Kelce caught both of his targets for 59 yards and a touchdown: 48 yards on the first Kansas City snap of the game, and an 11-yard touchdown on third and 6 with 3:01 left that made it 24–10. The two catches were worth plus 6.5 expected points, the most of any player thrown to in the game, and a third catch was erased by a penalty, in a 24–10 win over the Dolphins.
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Nothing to nothing, the first Kansas City snap of the game, first and 10 at the Kansas City 33. Patrick Mahomes threw deep middle to Travis Kelce, 22 yards in the air, and Kelce took it 26 more to the Miami 19. +3.4 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 12.0 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, the largest gain on any Chiefs pass or run. Three snaps later Kenneth Walker scored.
The line: two targets, two catches, 59 yards, one touchdown, two first downs, +6.5 expected points on the targets. The touchdown was 17 to 10, three-oh-one left in the game, third and six at the Miami 11: short right, 11 yards, into the end zone. +3.1 expected points. His two catches were the two most valuable Chiefs plays of the day by expected points. Two snaps before the touchdown, a seven-yard catch to the Miami nine came back on an illegal block above the waist and is not in his line. One target before halftime, one after.
Two targets on the 23 Mahomes credited to a receiver. Rashee Rice had nine and Noah Gray, also a tight end, three. The 6.5 expected points on Kelce's two led every player thrown to in the game; Chris Bell's 3.5 for Miami was next.
Back in June the preview made no call on Kelce — a real volume floor and a ceiling made of memory — and named two things to watch: September targets per game, with six or more meaning the identity held, and how Kansas City used its tight ends in the red zone. Week 1 was five targets. Week 2 was 11, with a red-zone touchdown. Sunday was two, the fewest of the three games, and one of the two was a red-zone touchdown again. Three games, 18 targets: six a game, exactly on the preview's line. Three games settle little, but the red-zone half has answered twice. Kansas City is at the Raiders on Sunday the fourth.
_Data via nflverse._
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