Cleveland Browns pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Browns weekly

Third and ten at the Carolina fourteen, one fifty-five left in the game, Cleveland down eighteen to thirteen. Deshaun Watson had been hurt on the play that put the ball there, sat out one snap, and came back for the next two. On the second of them he threw short left to Fannin, and Fannin scored from fourteen yards. Twenty-three points of win probability on one snap — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — the biggest swing of the game. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was plus three point four. Watson hit Boston for the two-point conversion, twenty-one to eighteen. The Browns beat the Panthers twenty-one to eighteen in Cleveland on Sunday, trailed for about seven minutes, all of them in the fourth quarter, and the model had them as low as twenty-two percent after Carolina's touchdown with four twenty-nine left.