Dallas Cowboys pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Cowboys weekly

Fourth and one at the Dallas one, thirteen oh seven left in the game, down twenty-four to twenty-one. A twenty-yard run on the quarter's first snap had given Baltimore first and goal at the three, and three snaps had moved the ball two yards, the last a Derrick Henry touchdown that replay took back to the one. Henry went at left guard again, and the play ended with Barham on the tackle for a loss of three. Sixteen points of win probability — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — more than any other snap swung toward Dallas all afternoon. Then the Cowboys went ninety-six yards in seven plays, the big one a forty-nine-yard throw from Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb on second and nine from the Dallas five, and KaVontae Turpin ran nine yards around left end to put Dallas up twenty-eight to twenty-four with nine forty-six left. They lost thirty-four to thirty-one on Sunday afternoon in Rio de Janeiro. Baltimore went ahead with ninety-four seconds left, Brandon Aubrey tied it from twenty-three yards with ten seconds left, and Baltimore needed one twenty-seven-yard completion and a fifty-six-yard field goal on the final snap to win it.