Green Bay Packers pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Packers weekly

First and ten at the Atlanta forty, three oh six left in the first quarter, Green Bay up seven to nothing. A roughing-the-passer penalty had just turned a third-and-eleven incompletion into a first down for an Atlanta offense that had not run an offensive play inside an opponent's twenty in two games. Bijan Robinson went around left end for fifty-five yards to the Green Bay five. Nine points of win probability on one snap — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — and by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, plus three point seven. Four days earlier this run defense had taken eleven point eight expected points away from twenty-seven Jets rush plays and won a game with it. On Thursday it allowed two hundred forty-four yards on thirty-nine. Green Bay lost thirty-five to fourteen at Lambeau Field, led for less than four minutes of the first quarter, and trailed by at least ten points for the entire second half.