Houston Texans pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Texans weekly

Second and ten at the Houston thirty-nine, four forty-five left in the fourth quarter, Colts up sixteen to ten. Will Anderson sacked Daniel Jones, the ball came loose, and Togiai recovered at the Houston forty-six. By win probability — the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — that snap moved nearly thirteen points Houston's way, and by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it cost the Colts five and a half. Seven plays and fifty-four yards later Woody Marks went in from the one on first and goal with one fifty left, and after the extra point Houston led seventeen to sixteen. The lead lasted eighty-seven seconds. Indianapolis went twenty-nine yards, and Spencer Shrader made a fifty-three-yard field goal with twenty-one seconds left. The Texans lost nineteen to seventeen in Indianapolis, are oh and three, and led this game for less than a minute and a half of it.