Jacksonville Jaguars pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Jaguars weekly

Two minutes left in the first half, Jacksonville up six to three, Cincinnati at third and six on the Jacksonville forty-five. Joe Burrow threw short over the middle for Dohnte Meyers, and Lewis intercepted at the thirty-seven and ran it back forty-five yards to the Cincinnati eighteen. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that moved Jacksonville from even to about sixty-seven percent. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it cost Cincinnati six point two. Bhayshul Tuten ran for nine, then two with a face-mask penalty on top to the three, then had a touchdown taken away by a holding call, then ran six more to the seven. With one twenty-seven left Trevor Lawrence threw short left to Brian Thomas for the touchdown, thirteen to three. Jacksonville won twenty-two to seventeen in Cincinnati and never trailed.