2025 season · Regression Flags

Los Angeles Chargers pythagorean win delta, 2025

+1.7

29th of 32, biggest shortfall first

League median
+0.2
Sample
Through the 2025 season

Did the Chargers win more games than their point differential earned?

The Chargers finished +1.7 wins against their pythagorean expectation in the 2025 season, 29th of 32 on this board — below zero means they won fewer games than their point differential earned.

From the Chargers weekly

One oh three left in the fourth quarter, the Chargers down thirty to twenty-three, first and ten at their own twenty-nine in the no-huddle. Seventy-one yards to go. Justin Herbert was sacked by Nwosu at the twenty, the ball came loose, and Hall recovered for Seattle. By expected points added, which measures what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position against what that situation was already worth, it was minus four point four. It also cost seven points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, the largest swing on any snap from scrimmage in the game. Seattle knelt twice. The Chargers lost thirty to twenty-three in Seattle and are oh and four.

Read the Week 4 note →

Which teams won fewer games than their point differential in 2025?

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5), New York Giants (-3.1), then Arizona Cardinals (-2.4) lead the league. All 32 teams on the Regression Flags board.

More on this team: the Los Angeles Chargers page.

Use Muffed in your AI

Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.

Add to Claude · Set up in ChatGPT · How it works →