Los Angeles Rams pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Rams weekly

Third and six at the Denver thirty-eight, five oh one left in the fourth quarter, Rams up nineteen to sixteen. Matthew Stafford threw short left for Kyren Williams, and Talanoa Hufanga took it at the Denver thirty-four and ran sixty-six yards the other way for a touchdown. By expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — that one play was minus nine point three for Los Angeles. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, the Rams went from eighty percent before the snap to twenty-seven after it, the biggest swing of the night. Los Angeles had led sixteen to nothing at halftime, and when Denver punted on its first possession of the third quarter the model gave the Rams ninety-one percent. They led for about thirty-nine minutes of game clock. Denver led for about two, and won thirty to twenty-six on Sunday night in Denver.