Las Vegas Raiders pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Raiders weekly

Third and six at the New Orleans thirty-one, eight oh three left in the game, the Saints down twenty-eight to twenty-seven. Tyler Shough threw short left for Lance, and Masses intercepted at the New Orleans forty-three and ran it back thirty-five yards to the eight. He lost the ball there, and Butler recovered it for Las Vegas at the four. Twenty-nine points of win probability on one snap — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — and by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was minus six and a half for New Orleans. Three plays later Kirk Cousins hit Brock Bowers for four yards on third and four, and after the extra point it was thirty-five to twenty-seven. It stayed that way. The Raiders were down twenty-seven to sixteen with five forty-six left in the third quarter, when the model gave the Saints an eighty-seven percent chance. They scored the last nineteen points, and New Orleans' last four possessions all ended in turnovers. Las Vegas is three and oh. Last season it won three games all year.