Minnesota Vikings pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Vikings weekly

Fourth and five at the Tampa Bay forty-five, nine minutes left in the first quarter, Minnesota up three to nothing. Tampa Bay punted forty-one yards to the Minnesota fourteen, and Price brought it back eighty-six yards for a touchdown. Eighteen points of win probability on one snap — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — and by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it cost Tampa Bay six point nine. Seven points was the final margin. Minnesota won at Tampa Bay twenty-three to sixteen, is three and oh, led for about fifty-four of the sixty minutes and never trailed. It did that on a day when its passing game posted the lowest success rate of any of the ninety-two team games played this season, and its offense never ran a play inside the Tampa Bay twenty.