New York Jets pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Jets weekly

Fourth and six at the Detroit twenty-three, four eleven left in the game, down twenty-four to sixteen. Geno Smith threw deep right for Garrett Wilson, who was ruled down at the one; the Jets challenged, and the review made it a twenty-three-yard touchdown. Smith then found Shepard for two, and it was twenty-four all. That snap was worth twenty points of win probability — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — the biggest swing of the game. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was plus four point seven. On Detroit's first snap of the tie, Jared Goff went forty-nine yards down the middle to Isaac TeSlaa, and three snaps later Jahmyr Gibbs caught the go-ahead touchdown. The Jets' last drive reached the Detroit twenty-eight and ended with Smith sacked and stripped. Detroit won thirty-one to twenty-four. The Jets led for about four minutes of it, all in the second quarter.