Tampa Bay Buccaneers pythagorean win delta, 2025
+0.3
18th of 32, biggest shortfall first
- +0.2
- Through the 2025 season
Did the Buccaneers win more games than their point differential earned?
The Buccaneers finished +0.3 wins against their pythagorean expectation in the 2025 season, 18th of 32 on this board — below zero means they won fewer games than their point differential earned.
From the Buccaneers weekly
Fourth and eleven at the Green Bay forty-seven, a minute thirty-four left, Tampa Bay down seventeen to fourteen. Jalon Daniels threw short middle for Ted Hurst, Nixon was ruled to have intercepted it, and replay made it an incompletion, which changed nothing that mattered. Turnover on downs, and Jordan Love knelt three times. By win probability, the chance of winning the game after the snap against before it, that throw cost the Buccaneers twenty points. Tampa Bay lost seventeen to fourteen at Raymond James Stadium and is oh and four, by six, four, seven and now three points. Daniels, who had thrown three passes all season before Sunday, threw every Tampa Bay pass.
Read the Week 4 note →Which teams won fewer games than their point differential in 2025?
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5), New York Giants (-3.1), then Arizona Cardinals (-2.4) lead the league. All 32 teams on the Regression Flags board.
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