Tampa Bay Buccaneers pythagorean win delta, 2025
+0.3
18th of 32, biggest shortfall first
- +0.2
- Through the 2025 season
Did the Buccaneers win more games than their point differential earned?
The Buccaneers finished +0.3 wins against their pythagorean expectation in the 2025 season, 18th of 32 on this board — below zero means they won fewer games than their point differential earned.
From the Buccaneers weekly
Third and fifteen at the Tampa Bay twenty-nine, four twenty-eight left in the third quarter, down seventeen to thirteen. Baker Mayfield hit Bucky Irving short right for fifteen yards and a first down, and a chop block brought it back: third and twenty-nine from the fifteen. Next snap, Mayfield went deep right to Chris Godwin for eighty-five yards and a touchdown that would have given Tampa Bay its first lead of the day. Holding, on Luke Goedeke. Third and thirty-six from the eight, a six-yard run, a punt. Tampa Bay lost to the Vikings twenty-three to sixteen at home, never led, and is oh and three. Its pass defense held Minnesota to the lowest success rate any defense has allowed in a game this season.
Read the Week 3 note →Which teams won fewer games than their point differential in 2025?
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5), New York Giants (-3.1), then Arizona Cardinals (-2.4) lead the league. All 32 teams on the Regression Flags board.
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