Washington Commanders pythagorean win delta, 2025
-1.2
5th of 32, biggest shortfall first
- +0.2
- Through the 2025 season
Did the Commanders win more games than their point differential earned?
The Commanders finished -1.2 wins against their pythagorean expectation in the 2025 season, 5th of 32 on this board — below zero means they won fewer games than their point differential earned.
From the Commanders weekly
Fourth and one at the Washington forty-six, eight thirty-four left in the second quarter, Washington up six to nothing. Craig Reynolds went up the middle and got nothing, and the Colts took over at the Commanders' forty-six. By win probability — the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — that snap cost Washington about six points, and Indianapolis went the forty-six yards in nine plays for the touchdown that put it ahead for good. The Colts beat the Commanders thirty to thirteen. Washington is one and three.
Read the Week 4 note →Which teams won fewer games than their point differential in 2025?
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5), New York Giants (-3.1), then Arizona Cardinals (-2.4) lead the league. All 32 teams on the Regression Flags board.
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