Chiefs 33, Colts 30 — Week 2: Third and One in Overtime

Third and one at the Indianapolis 46, a minute 30 left in overtime, tied at 30. Patrick Mahomes threw short left to Kenneth Walker, and Walker took it 22 yards to the Colts' 24. 36 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the night on any play that was not a kick. Walker ran once more for two, Kansas City called timeout with one second on the overtime clock, and Harrison Butker hit from 40 yards. Chiefs 33, Colts 30, in overtime at home on Sunday night. Each team had kicked a field goal on its first overtime possession; Butker's second one ended it, and Kansas City is two and oh.

Start with the passing game, because it is the opposite of last week. 382 passing yards, the most of the 30 teams that have played this week, inside 534 total yards, also the most so far. 49 pass plays were worth +13.4 expected points added — expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is value created above what those situations were already worth. Sixth of 30 in total, ninth per play. Last week against Denver, 29 pass plays were worth −2.3. At the rate this offense passed last season, when it ranked fourteenth, Sunday's 49 would have been worth about +2. No interceptions, no fumbles lost, two sacks taken. And the plays that carried it came on third and long. Third and 11 at the Indianapolis 46, 10 38 left in the third quarter, down 20 to 17: Mahomes deep right to Tyquan Thornton for 45 yards, down to the one. 22 points of win probability. Then the first drive of overtime, third and 12 from the Kansas City 30 after a sack: Mahomes deep right to Thornton again, 30 yards. Kansas City converted only five of 13 third downs, tied with Cleveland for seventeenth so far this week, but those two conversions kept alive drives that produced 10 points.

The run game's number is 59 percent. That is its success rate, the share of rush plays that kept the offense on schedule, third of the 30 teams that have played this week behind Baltimore and Buffalo. Last week it was 43 percent, on a night when the yardage came from a few long runs. This was the other kind of game: 29 rush plays, a hundred 52 yards, nothing longer than 19, and +4.4 expected points, third per play so far this week behind Buffalo and Tampa Bay. At the rate the Colts defended the run last season, when they ranked ninth, those 29 plays would have been worth about −1.4. It was a second-half run game. Six rush plays for 39 yards before halftime, 23 for a hundred 13 after it, overtime included. The third quarter opened with four straight Walker runs: one yard, then 12, then 10, then four.

What the run game could not do was score from the one. After Thornton's 45-yarder, Walker went up the middle for nothing, up the middle for nothing, and at right guard with two extra players reporting as eligible for nothing. On fourth and one, still down 20 to 17, Mahomes threw short right to Jalen Royals for the touchdown. 11 points of win probability. It was the second fourth and one of that drive; on the first, at the Indianapolis 48, Tonga reported as eligible, took the ball up the middle and gained three. Two tries on fourth down, two conversions.

The drive chart explains why a team with 534 yards needed overtime. 11 drives: three touchdowns, four field goals, a miss wide left from 51, two punts, and the end of regulation. 15 snaps inside the 20 produced three touchdowns. The longest drive of the night by yards started at the Kansas City nine late in the third quarter, reached the Indianapolis 14, took a holding penalty, and ended 81 yards from where it began, with Butker from 28. The first overtime drive reached the 13, then two incompletions, then Butker from 31. And regulation ended with the ball at the Colts' 23: from its own 16 with 24 seconds left, Kansas City used all three timeouts, and a 31-yard completion to Rashee Rice began with three seconds showing. Time ran out before a kick.

The defense is where this week argues with last week. Against Denver it allowed a hundred 93 yards, the fewest in the league in Week 1. Against Indianapolis it allowed +9.7 expected points in total — on defense a positive number is the bad direction — and that is 20-fifth of the 30 teams that have played. 32 Colts rush plays were worth +3.9, 20-fifth per play; at the rate this run defense allowed last season, when it ranked around tenth, they would have been worth about −1.4. 31 pass plays were worth +5.9, eighteenth so far this week. No sacks. Indianapolis had 10 drives and none of them was a three-and-out. On third down the defense got seven stops in 12, tied with Denver for sixteenth this week, after stopping 10 of 12 against the Broncos.

Kristian Fulton had both ends of it. Second and six from the Indianapolis 14 in the first quarter, Colts up seven to three, Fulton intercepted Daniel Jones at the 16, and on the second snap of the drive that followed Travis Kelce caught a 13-yard touchdown. It was the only turnover of the game. Fulton was also flagged for pass interference twice on deep throws for Laquon Treadwell, 26 yards on a third and one and 23 more with a minute 24 left in the half. The first led to a field goal. Four plays after the second, Jonathan Taylor went around right end for 24 yards and a 20 to 17 Colts lead at the break.

What the defense did do was hold late. After halftime, overtime included, 13 Colts rush plays gained 29 yards. Tied at 27 with 40 seconds left in regulation, third and four at the Indianapolis 49 fell incomplete, and the Colts punted. And in overtime, after Jones hit Treadwell for 48 yards — first ruled a fumble recovered by Kansas City, then reversed on replay — Indianapolis had first and 10 at the 17, down three, where a touchdown wins the game. Drue Tranquill stopped Taylor for a loss of one. Nick Bolton stopped him for a loss of two. A five-yard scramble, a delay of game, and the Colts kicked from 38 to tie.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Kansas City went six and 11. By expected points per play the run game ranked sixth, the passing game fourteenth, the pass defense fifteenth and the run defense around tenth, and the third-down defense was 20-eighth. Week 1 was a 31 to 10 win over Denver built on the second-best run game in the league that week, the third-best pass defense, and 10 stops on 12 third downs. Week 2 was won a different way. The run game stayed in the top three and got steadier. The passing game went from 20-first of 32 to ninth of the 30 that have played. The defense went from third of 32 against the pass to eighteenth of 30, and from the fewest yards allowed to 30 points allowed. Two games do not settle which defense is real, and the second of them took all 70 minutes.

Kansas City goes to Miami next Sunday. The Dolphins' pass defense allowed +23.3 expected points this week, the most of the 30 teams that have played, so the passing game gets a chance to repeat itself.

That's your Chiefs — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Chiefs show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._