Chiefs, Week 2 — What Repeats: Play-Action at Double, Again

Kansas City threw screens at about twice last season's rate on Sunday night. Nine screens on 51 dropbacks, 18 percent, the second-highest rate of the 32 teams this week, a hair behind Miami. Across all of last season it was nine percent. Against Denver it was five of 33, 15 percent, fourth in the league, one fewer than last week's episode said, because the charting has since been revised. Up both weeks, doubled once. Play-action climbed with it. 19 of 51 dropbacks, 37 percent, fourth-highest this week, after 30 percent and tied for ninth against Denver, and after 15 percent across last season. Two games, two opponents, and both figures landed above 2025 both times, which puts them with motion and the run game's box counts among the figures that have repeated. And the fake produced this week. Patrick Mahomes threw 18 play-action passes and completed 15, for a hundred 25 yards. Last week it was four of eight for 28. Most of the yardage came from the straight dropbacks: his 29 other throws went 17 for 257. Both completions that traveled 20 or more yards in the air came without the fake.

The ball charting is where this week argued with last. 35 of Mahomes's 47 throws were catchable, 74 percent, the tenth-highest rate of the 32 this week. Against Denver it was 63 percent and 20-fifth. Across last season his own figure was 70. So the less accurate night was the one that reversed. Five of his throws were contested, 11 percent, nineteenth, against six percent across his season last year and none at all last week. One was charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, two percent of throws, nineteenth, under his three percent last season. His receivers dropped one of the 35 catchable balls, after two last week. He threw three away. The Recap counted two sacks, and for the second straight game none was charted as the quarterback's fault. The rush he saw changed too. Indianapolis sent five or more rushers on nine of 51 dropbacks, 18 percent, second-lowest any offense faced this week. Last week Denver sent five or more on 45 percent, third-highest. Last season this offense saw it on 20 percent. That swing belongs to the opponent's plan, not to Kansas City.

The run game repeated too, and this is the one to hold onto. The Colts showed a light box, six or fewer defenders, on 14 of Kansas City's 27 designed runs, 52 percent, eleventh-highest this week. Against Denver it was 39 percent. Across all of last season this offense ran into a light box on 68 percent of its designed runs, so the 2025 run game usually saw six or fewer. Two weeks in, it has seen fewer light boxes both times, and this week's average box was six and a half against 6.4 last year. The yards came anyway. 27 designed runs for a hundred 35 yards, five a run, fourth-highest this week. Last week, 6.4, second. Last season, 3.8. Walker carried 24 of the designed runs for a hundred 17 yards, and 13 of his 24 came against a light box.

A few smaller scheme notes. Motion on 50 of 99 charted plays, 51 percent, fifteenth and just above the median, after 44 percent last week and 40 across last season. That is up both weeks, by a modest amount. Run-pass options went the other way from last week. 12 of 78 snaps, 15 percent, back at last season's 14 after only five percent against Denver. The quarterback was out of the pocket on 13 of 51 dropbacks, 25 percent, tenth-highest.

On defense, the headline number is one Kansas City may not own. The Colts' throws were contested on nine of 31, 29 percent, the third-highest rate any defense produced this week. Last season quarterbacks facing this defense saw only eight percent of throws contested. But Daniel Jones was contested on exactly nine of 31 against Baltimore the week before too, the highest in the league that week. So the figure travels with the Colts' passing game at least as much as with this secondary. The rest of what the defense allowed was ordinary. 23 of Jones's 31 throws were catchable, 74 percent, tied for eleventh with Detroit, Houston and Jacksonville, against 73 for last season's opponents. One interception-worthy ball, tied for eleventh with New Orleans and the Giants, and the game's one interception belonged to Kansas City. No drops. And the Colts faked on 16 of 33 dropbacks against it, 48 percent, second-highest this week. Opponents used play-action on 21 percent across last season, and Denver used it on 18 last week. Jones went 12 of 15 for a hundred 25 on the fake, and 10 of 16 for 85 without it.

The defense's own call sheet has not moved. Five or more rushers on 11 of the Colts' 33 dropbacks, 33 percent, sixteenth this week and just above the median. Last week, 30 percent. Last season, 34. A light box on 15 of 30 designed runs, 50 percent, twelfth. Last week, 54. Last season, 51. Three readings, the same defense each time. Against the run the yardage was middle of the pack. 30 designed runs for a hundred 12 yards, 3.7 a run, nineteenth, after four and a half last week and 3.9 across last season. What moved from Week 1 to Week 2 was the result through the air, and the charting says the plan behind it did not.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Mahomes led the team with 29: 32 of 47 for 382 three touchdowns, +2 carries for 17. Kenneth Walker, 20.8, 24 carries for a hundred 17 six catches on 10 targets for 61. Travis Kelce caught nine of 11 targets for a hundred one and a touchdown, 20.6. Xavier Worthy, five catches on seven targets for 25 and a score, 11. Tyquan Thornton caught all four of his targets for 86. Rashee Rice, four catches on six targets for 83. For Indianapolis, Jonathan Taylor led the Colts with 27.2, from 24 carries for 92 two touchdowns +4 catches for 40. Daniel Jones was 22 of 31 for 210, a touchdown and an interception, 11.4.

On what this comparison can and cannot do. Through Week 3 there is no run of weeks to measure the Chiefs against, so this show uses last season and last week. The 2025 roster is not this roster, every player on it is a year older, and one week is one game. So the comparisons point out what was unusual. Two games are still two games, and they do not tell us what is true. That changes around Week 4, when the show can hold Kansas City to its own recent weeks.

For a first-time listener, the thread. A year ago this was a six-and-11 team whose strength was the run game, sixth in the league by expected points per play, with the passing game fourteenth. This season has opened 31 to 10 over Denver and 33 to 30 in overtime over Indianapolis, two and oh. Last week's notebook had three lines. Heavier boxes and big yards on the designed runs: that repeated. Play-action doubling: it repeated and rose. Screens rose both weeks too, though only this week's reached double. Mahomes throwing a less catchable ball than his norm: that reversed, back above it. In goes a defense whose rush and box counts have not moved in three readings. So on Sunday, count the screens and the fakes. If Kansas City is near a fifth of dropbacks on screens and a third on play-action again, the case that the 2026 offense is built differently from the 2025 one gets a third game behind it.

That's your Chiefs — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Chiefs show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._