Chiefs, Week 3 — What Repeats: Twelve for Twelve Off the Fake

Patrick Mahomes threw 12 play-action passes in Miami and completed all 12. They gained a hundred 94 yards. His other 12 throws went eight for 52. That is nearly four of every five passing yards coming off a fake handoff, and all three of Kansas City's completions of 20 yards or more came that way: Kelce for 48 on the first snap of the game, Gray for 24 in the fourth quarter, and Rice for 34 on the drive that put it away. The rate behind it is the story of this team's season so far. Kansas City used play-action on 12 of 25 dropbacks, 48 percent, the highest rate of the 32 offenses this week. Detroit was next at 42. It has climbed every week: 30 percent against Denver, 37 against the Colts, now 48. Across all of last season it was 15. Last week this show pointed out that the yardage was still coming mostly from the straight dropbacks even as the fake rate rose. Sunday reversed that. The fake was the offense.

The screens climbed with it. Seven of the 25 dropbacks were screens, 28 percent, also the highest rate in the league this week. That is 15 percent in Week 1, 18 in Week 2, 28 now, against nine across all of last season. What they produced was modest: all seven were caught, for 28 yards between them, and one was Walker's five-yard touchdown in the second quarter. The screen is a rhythm call in this offense, not a yardage call.

The ball charting completed a three-week climb. 21 of Mahomes's 24 throws were charted catchable, 88 percent, the highest rate of the 32 offenses this week. Against Denver it was 63 percent and 20-fifth. Against the Colts, 74 and tenth. His own figure across last season was 70. His receivers dropped none of the 21. No throw was charted interception-worthy, and the one interception, deep middle for Rice with two minutes left in the half, was not marked as one by the charters. The rush he saw was the lightest in the league. Miami sent five or more pass rushers on three of 25 dropbacks, 12 percent, the lowest rate any offense faced this week. Denver sent five or more on 45 percent in Week 1, the Colts on 18. Mahomes completed all three throws against five or more rushers, for 45 yards, and no sack stood.

Now the run game, where the notebook line kept one half and lost the other. Miami showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 10 of Kansas City's 24 designed runs, 42 percent, sixteenth this week and a hair above the median. That is the third week in a row under last season's 68, after 39 52. The yards left. 24 designed runs gained 87, 3.6 a run, twentieth of 32, after 6.4 and five even. Last season's figure was 3.8. The split runs backwards from what a light box is supposed to buy: into six or fewer, 10 runs for 25 yards. Into seven or more, 14 for 62. Walker carried 18 times for 70 and a touchdown. The boxes were what they have been all season. The output was not.

On defense, the number this show declined to credit last week now looks like Kansas City's. 14 of Malik Willis's 36 throws were contested, 39 percent, the second-highest rate any defense produced this week, behind Indianapolis. Last week the Colts' throws were contested 29 percent of the time, and this show pointed out that Daniel Jones had seen the same rate the week before, so the figure might travel with the Colts. Willis brings no such history. His throws were contested 15 percent of the time in Week 1 and 17 in Week 2. Against Kansas City it was 39, and he completed six of the 14 for 63 yards. 23 of his 36 throws were catchable, 64 percent, eighth-lowest allowed this week, and under what last season's opponents managed. The rush behind it has not moved in four readings: five or more rushers on 13 of 42 dropbacks, 31 percent, twelfth, after 30, 33, and 34 across last season. The box did move. A light box on eight of Miami's 25 designed runs, 32 percent, ninth-lowest of the 32 defenses this week. It had been 54 50, and 51 across last season. Those 25 runs gained 76 yards, three even, after four and a half and 3.7. The heavier front was the change, and the run defense allowed its fewest yards per designed run of the three weeks behind it.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Walker led the team with 20.3: 18 carries for 70 and a touchdown, two catches for three yards and the screen score. Mahomes, 15.9, 20 of 24 for 246, two touchdowns, the interception. Kelce caught both of his targets for 59 and a touchdown, 12.9. Rice, seven of nine for 88, 12.3. For Miami, Ollie Gordon scored 13 even, 17 carries for 41 and a touchdown +3 catches for 14. Willis, 20 of 36 for 210 and the interception, nine carries for 56, 10 even.

One housekeeping line. This is the last week the yardstick is last season, a different roster answering a different question. From next week, this show measures the Chiefs against the Chiefs' own 2026.

For anyone joining, the thread from the top. Kansas City went six and 11 a year ago. This season it beat Denver 31 to 10, the Colts 33 to 30 in overtime, and the Dolphins 24 to 10 in Miami, and it is three and oh. Last week's notebook asked for a fifth of dropbacks on screens and a third on play-action. It got 28 48, both first in the league, so the case that this offense is built differently from last year's has its third game. Heavier boxes and big yards on designed runs: the boxes held, the yards broke. Mahomes throwing a more catchable ball than his norm: held, and rose again. A defense whose rush and box counts had not moved: the rush held for a fourth reading, the box broke, heavier. And the contested rate that might have belonged to the Colts now has two weeks near the top of the league against two different offenses. What goes in the notebook: the play-action rate, and whether the run game's yards come back at the same box count. Kansas City is at the Raiders next.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._