Chiefs 3, Seahawks 20 — Week 7: Never Inside the 20

Kansas City lost 20-3 at Seattle on Sunday night, its fewest points of the season, and never ran a play inside the Seattle 20. The Chiefs fell to 5-2. They trailed 10-0 at halftime and 13-0 until Harrison Butker's 50-yard field goal late in the third quarter. Eight drives produced that field goal, two missed field goals, an interception, a turnover on downs and three punts, one of them after a three-and-out. The offense converted 3 of 11 third downs.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the drop. Its 34 pass plays were worth -6.0 EPA, -0.18 a play against +0.18 through Week 6, and 41.2% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Patrick Mahomes completed 19 of 33 for 165 yards, his fewest this season, with no touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked once. Seattle hit him seven times by the play-by-play's count. Travis Kelce caught 4 of 8 targets for 44 yards, all four after halftime, two of them third-down conversions of 18 and 19. Xavier Worthy caught 3 of 6 for 11 yards, and the three deep throws to him all fell incomplete. Noah Gray caught two deep balls of 19 yards each.

The run game came in under its own standard, and success rate shows how far: 4 of 16 rush plays succeeded, 25%, for 50 yards. They were worth +0.8 EPA, +0.05 a play against +0.13 through Week 6. Kenneth Walker III ran 14 times for 36, his fewest yards in any game this season, and 3 of the carries gained positive EPA. His best was 3 yards up the middle on fourth and 1 at the Seattle 49 in the second quarter, +2.21 EPA and 7.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win.

The pass defense had its worst night against its own standard, and EPA per play allowed is the measure: Seattle's 28 pass plays were worth +12.2, +0.43 a play against -0.11 allowed through Week 6. On defense a positive number is the bad direction. Sam Darnold completed 20 of 28 for 257 yards and a touchdown and was not sacked, though George Karlaftis hit him twice. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 9 of 12 targets for 150 yards, 129 of them before halftime, and converted four third downs: 9 on third and 5, 10 on third and 9, 33 on third and 7 to the Kansas City 20, and the 28-yard touchdown on third and 9 with 1:49 left in the half. The takeaway was Nohl Williams's: up 10-0 with 23 seconds left, second and 3 at the 3, Darnold threw over the middle for Rashid Shaheed and Williams intercepted in the end zone and returned it 65 yards, -5.61 EPA to Seattle.

The run defense gave up volume and held the goal line, and the red zone tells it: Seattle ran 9 snaps inside the Kansas City 20 and scored no touchdowns. Seattle's 41 rush plays, scrambles included, were worth -1.4 EPA, -0.03 a play against -0.10 allowed through Week 6, for 153 yards; here a negative number is good, and this was less good than usual. Emanuel Wilson ran 24 times for 100 yards. On first and 2 at the 2, one snap before the interception, Mansoor Delane and Drue Tranquill stopped George Holani for a 1-yard loss, and in the third Nick Bolton and Delane threw Velus Jones Jr. for a 6-yard loss at the 6, and Seattle kicked. Wilson's 21-yard touchdown on third and 4 with 3:52 left was the run that ended it.

The game turned with 6:09 left in the first half. Down 3-0, Walker had just converted fourth and 1. On second and 10 at the Seattle 46, Mahomes threw short left for Jalen Royals, Nick Emmanwori hit him on the throw, and Ty Okada intercepted at the 34: -3.78 EPA and 13.7 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Seattle went 66 yards in 10 plays for a 10-0 lead. The interception at the other end gave the Chiefs the ball at the Seattle 44 with 7 seconds left, and Butker's 58-yarder fell short. Down 13-3 in the fourth, Kelce's 19-yarder on third and 6 and Gray's 19 deep over the middle started an 11-play drive to the Seattle 27, where Mahomes's third-and-3 throw for Cyrus Allen fell incomplete and Butker missed from 45, wide right, with 8:38 left. The last drive ended on fourth and 10 at the Kansas City 42, with a 3-yard catch by Kelce, 7 short.

Last week's notebook asked whether the offense would turn red-zone trips into touchdowns. It did not get the chance: no snaps inside the Seattle 20, after 14 against the Chargers. The one to watch next: whether a passing game at -0.18 a play here, against +0.18 through Week 6, gets back to its standard, and whether Walker, at -0.08 a carry after +0.12, finds room again.

That's your Chiefs, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Chiefs on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._