Chiefs 35, Jets 12 — Week 9: Five Sacks, Five Touchdowns

Kansas City beat the Jets 35-12 at home on Sunday, ending a two-game losing streak and going to 6-2. The 35 points were the Chiefs' most this season and the 23-point margin their largest. They trailed 9-7 midway through the second quarter on three Jason Sanders field goals, then outscored New York 28-3. 12 drives produced five touchdowns, two lost fumbles and a missed field goal; the defense allowed four field goals and no touchdowns.

The passing game beat its standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures by how much: 33 pass plays worth +7.5, +0.23 a play against +0.142 through Week 8. 57.6% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Patrick Mahomes completed 23 of 31 for 242 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Both touchdowns went to Kenneth Walker, from 7 yards on the first snap of the second quarter and from 25 on second and 11. Travis Kelce caught 4 of 6 for 72, including a 38-yarder, and Xavier Worthy caught all 6 of his targets for 48. David Bailey sacked Mahomes twice and forced a fumble both times.

The run game came in at its standard, and success rate says how steadily: 17 of 31 rush plays, 54.8%, succeeded, for 164 yards and three touchdowns, worth +0.10 a play against +0.109 through Week 8. That includes the worst snap of the day. Down 3-0 in the first quarter, third and 1 at the Kansas City 34, Justin Fields ran up the middle and was ruled down; the Jets challenged, the call became a fumble recovered by Demario Davis, -5.3 EPA, and Sanders kicked a 48-yarder. After halftime the 24 rush plays were worth +8.6, +0.36 a play, for 136 yards. Walker ran 18 times for 102 and scored from the 2. Kelce scored on fourth and 1, and Emmett Johnson from 6.

The pass defense Smashed, and total EPA allowed says by how much: New York's 37 pass plays were worth -10.8, -0.29 a play against -0.008 allowed through Week 8. On defense a negative number is good. Only 35.1% succeeded, for 165 passing yards and no touchdowns, and the 19 pass plays after halftime were worth -11.1. George Karlaftis and Chris Jones had two sacks each and Ashton Gillotte one. The one that mattered came up 14-12 with 42 seconds left in the half: third and 6 at the Kansas City 26, Jones sacked Geno Smith for 9 yards, costing the Jets 10.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Sanders's 53-yard try went wide left. The defense stopped 10 of 12 third downs, and Adonai Mitchell, with 142 yards last week, caught none of his 7 targets.

The run defense won its biggest snap, and EPA per play allowed shows it: New York's 25 rush plays were worth -0.32 a play against -0.081 allowed through Week 8; negative is good here too. One fumble was -4.6 of the -7.9. The other 24 came to -0.14 a play, 44% succeeded, and the Jets gained 106 yards on the ground. Breece Hall ran 15 times for 61. New York ran 21 times before halftime and 4 after it.

The game turned on that fumble. Down 9-7 with 6:29 left in the second quarter, first and 10 at the Jets' 21, Braelon Allen ran up the middle for 5 yards and Nick Bolton knocked the ball out; Alohi Gilman recovered at the 26 and returned it to the 24, 22.0 points of win probability, the game's largest swing. Two snaps later Walker's 25-yard touchdown catch put Kansas City ahead for good. Kansas City nearly gave it back: Bailey's second strip sack, recovered by Will McDonald IV at the Kansas City 30 with 1:41 left, cost 21.1 points, and Mahomes was hurt on the play before returning for the next possession. The Jets went backward from there, and Sanders missed from 53. Harrison Butker's 56-yarder hit the right upright on an offside penalty, and his 51-yard retry went wide right.

Last week's episode asked whether a run game at +0.006 a play against Denver would find room again for Walker. It did after halftime: 24 rush plays at +0.36 a play, and Walker's 18 carries for 102 yards, 11 of them successful. The one to watch next: Butker, wide from 54 at Denver and from 51 here, and whether his next long try goes through.

That's your Chiefs, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Chiefs on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._