Rams, Week 1 — What Repeats: Stafford Put Three Up for Grabs

Matthew Stafford threw 25 passes in Melbourne, and the charters marked three of them interception-worthy — balls a defender should have caught. That is 12 percent of his throws. Across all of last season it was 14 on 597, a little over two percent, so Thursday was five times his own rate. The Rams as a team put three interception-worthy balls up on 28 throws, and that 10.7 percent was the highest rate of the 32 offenses in Week 1 — not tied, and the next group sat at nine. Stafford was intercepted once, by Renardo Green in the second quarter, and the Recap had the drive it ended; the pack does not say whether that was one of the three. Three in a game came from a quarterback who did it on about two throws in a hundred last season.

The rest of the ball charting says the same night. 14 of Stafford's 25 throws were catchable, 56 percent; the Rams' team rate of 54 percent was 30-first of 32 offenses this week, against a league median of 71, and against 73 percent for Stafford across last season. Three of the 25 were contested — a receiver and a defender arriving together — 12 percent, which is under his 15 from a year ago, so this was not a quarterback forcing balls into traffic. Two throwaways. And zero drops on 14 catchable balls, so none of it was dropped. That leaves nine of 25 throws that were neither catchable nor thrown away.

Now the split inside those 25, because it is the most useful thing in the pack. Stafford's five play-action throws produced four completions for 58 yards. His 20 other throws produced 11 completions for 97 yards. The part that worked was used on five throws. Los Angeles called play-action on five of 29 dropbacks on Thursday, 17 percent, 20-sixth in the league in Week 1, with the median at 21. Across all of last season this offense used play-action on 35 percent of its dropbacks, about twice the rate. There is a matching drop in motion — a man moving before the snap on 39 percent of charted plays, 20-fifth in the league, against 52 percent last season — and one screen on 29 dropbacks, against seven percent last year. No-huddle went the other way, 12 and a half percent of snaps against seven percent. The charting cannot tell you why an offense that used play-action on over a third of its dropbacks last season called it at half that rate in the opener, with motion well under its usual rate too. It can tell you that it did, and that the five play-action throws were the most productive part of the passing game, four of five for 58 yards.

The run game, which the Recap called the good half, held up into heavy boxes. San Francisco showed six or fewer defenders in the box on six of the Rams' 27 charted designed runs — 22 percent, 20-ninth of 32 offenses this week, with an average of 6.9 in the box. Last season this offense saw a light box on 52 percent of its designed runs, with an average of about six and a half. Those 27 runs gained 114 yards into boxes nearly half a defender heavier than the ones this offense averaged last season, which is holding up, not thriving.

On defense, the number is how little was sent. Los Angeles rushed five or more on five of San Francisco's 36 dropbacks — 14 percent, tied for 20-eighth in the league this week with the median at 27, and down from 19 and a half percent last season. A charted blitzer came on four of the 36. An average of 4.2 rushers per dropback. What Brock Purdy did against it is the reason to raise it: 29 of his 34 throws were catchable, 85 percent, the fourth-highest rate of any offense in the league in Week 1, against 71 percent for the quarterbacks this defense faced across last season. Only two of the 34 throws were contested, six percent, against 14 last season, which is another way of saying Purdy rarely threw into a contested catch. Two of Purdy's throws were charted interception-worthy, and he was intercepted once, by Quentin Lake; the charting does not say whether that was one of the two. The defense showed heavier boxes on the other side — a light box on only 10 of San Francisco's 28 designed runs, 36 percent, after 65 and a half percent for this defense last season — and still gave up 148 yards on those 28. San Francisco ran motion on 68 percent of its charted plays against this defense, the highest rate in the league this week, and screened on seven of 36 dropbacks, 19 percent, against eight percent for the offenses this defense faced last season.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Kyren Williams led the team with 14 even — 11 carries for 41 and the touchdown, +3 catches for 24 on three targets. Nacua caught five of nine targets for 74, 9.9. Blake Corum ran 10 times for 54. Stafford, 15 of 25 for 155, no touchdowns, one interception, 4.1 — the same total as Davante Adams, who caught three of six for 26. Stetson Bennett went two of three for 13. For San Francisco, Purdy went 25 of 34 for 205 three touchdowns with the interception, +5 carries for 29, 21.1; Deebo Samuel caught six of seven for 48 and a score; Mike Evans six of seven for 49 and a score; Demarcus Robinson two of three for 50 and the third; and Christian McCaffrey ran 10 times for 68 and caught five of eight for 20.

Before the thread, a word on what this episode is comparing to. This show's name promises a within-season answer, and through Week 3 there is none — there are no prior weeks of this Rams team to hold Thursday against. Every comparison above is to all of last season: a different roster in places, a year older everywhere. What that comparison finds is what was unusual about Thursday. What it cannot find is what is true. The version of this show that measures the Rams against their own recent weeks starts working around Week 4, and until then we will say each time which of the two we are doing.

The season-long thread starts here. The Recap put down last season's ranks: an offense second in the league in expected points per play, first in success rate, second in explosive-play rate; a defense ninth. Three lines go in the notebook from the charting. The Rams' interception-worthy rate was the highest in the league and all three balls were Stafford's, in a game he threw into less traffic than usual, and the same charters gave him about two percent across last season — that is either one night or the first thing to change, and one night cannot say which. Play-action was called at half last season's rate and motion well under it, and play-action was the most productive part of the passing game. And the run game gained 114 yards on 27 designed runs into heavier boxes than it saw last year, which is the closest thing to a strength in this file. We are not calling any of the three. We are writing them down.

That's your Rams — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Rams show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._