Rams 24, Eagles 20 — Week 4: Ninety-Eight Yards, Then the Lead

Second and seven at the Philadelphia seven, a minute 17 left, the Rams down 20 to 17. Two snaps earlier Kyren Williams had converted third and two with a three-yard run to the eight. This time he went around left end and into the end zone. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, the run was +3.1. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, it was worth 16 points, the biggest swing of the game. Then Young sacked Jalen Hurts twice, the last pass fell incomplete on fourth and 25, and the Rams won 24 to 20. They had trailed by 10 when the fourth quarter began, and they are two and two.

Start with the defense, because it kept the Rams within 10 through a second half the offense spent mostly trailing 20 to 10. Philadelphia faced 12 third downs and converted none. After halftime the Eagles ran 28 plays for 72 yards, and their six possessions ended in three punts and three turnovers on downs.

The pass defense opens on the ball. Only 12 of Hurts's 27 throws were charted catchable, 44 percent, the lowest any of the 30 charted defenses allowed this week. Last week's episode said the league's least catchable passing had come against this defense two weeks running; make it three. Over the first three weeks opponents threw catchable balls 61 percent of the time against the Rams. By expected points, Philadelphia's 31 pass plays came to −8.2, about minus a quarter of a point a play, against about minus a sixth a play over the first three weeks; on defense, a big negative is the good direction. And this time the rush came. Five or more pass rushers on 16 of 32 dropbacks, half of them, fifth-highest of the 30 this week, after 28 percent over the first three weeks. Four sacks, Young in on three, and the charting put none of them on the quarterback. Both touchdowns allowed came in the last six minutes of the first half, one after Covey's 41-yard punt return to the Rams' 17, the other after an interception gave Philadelphia the ball at the 35.

The run defense smashed. 27 Philadelphia rush plays came to −8 and a half expected points, about −3 tenths a play, after a season rate just above zero. A third of them were successful, for a hundred four yards. The Rams did it with a light front: six or fewer in the box on 19 of 26 designed runs, 73 percent, after 39 percent over the first three weeks. Those runs gained 90 yards, about three and a half a run. Three short-yardage stops did the work. Third and one at the Los Angeles six on the Eagles' first drive, Ford and Young dropped Tank Bigsby for a loss of five, and Philadelphia kicked a field goal. Late in the third, up 20 to 10, the Eagles went for it on fourth and one at their own 38, and Landman stopped Hurts on a run up the middle for no gain, −3.4 expected points. And midway through the fourth, after 10 straight Eagles runs had reached the Los Angeles two, Lake stopped Hurts at the two on third down, and Hurts's fourth-down throw for Darius Cooper fell incomplete.

That stop is the turning point, because of where it left the offense: first and 10 at its own two, seven 26 left, down 10. Matthew Stafford went seven of nine on the drive. Williams for two, Puka Nacua for nine, Tyler Higbee for 20, then Nacua deep right for 32 to the Philadelphia 35. On third and 10 Williams caught a throw behind the line and got nine, and an unnecessary roughness penalty on top moved the ball to the Philadelphia 13. Davante Adams for five, Williams for seven to the one, and Williams in from the one. 98 yards in 10 plays. After an Eagles three-and-out the Rams went 79 yards in 10 more, Nacua catching three of them for 35. Across the two drives Stafford was 12 of 15 for a hundred 40 yards, and the 20 plays were worth +13.4 expected points.

The passing game around those drives was close to even. 52 pass plays came to +1.1 expected points, near zero a play, a little under this offense's rate over the first three weeks. Stafford finished 32 of 51 for 317 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions, both before halftime and both deep right: Mukuba on the opening drive, thrown from the Los Angeles 30, and DeJean with 34 seconds left in the half. The charting reads like his first three weeks. 34 of 51 throws catchable, 67 percent, the same rate as Weeks One through Three; three interception-worthy, six percent, seventh-highest of the 30 this week, and about his early-season rate. The receivers dropped three. Play-action fell to nine of 54 dropbacks, 17 percent, 20-third of the 30, after 24 percent over the first three weeks, and his eight play-action throws produced two completions for 21 yards; his other 43 throws produced 30 completions and 296. Nacua, in his first game since Week One, had nine catches for a hundred 25, eight of them after halftime. The best of his day came early: third and three at the Los Angeles 38, six 32 left in the first quarter, down three, deep right for 28 yards to the Philadelphia 34, +2.8 expected points and 12 points of win probability.

The run game turned its season rate around. 24 rush plays, a hundred seven yards, three touchdowns, +3.4 expected points, about plus a tenth a play, after about −5 hundredths of a point a play over the first three weeks. 46 percent were successful. Williams had 16 carries for 82 touchdowns, with 56 of the yards after halftime; Blake Corum had five for 14; and Nacua ran in from the two around left end before halftime. The box is the change. Philadelphia showed six or fewer defenders on 18 of 22 designed runs, 82 percent, the second-highest rate any offense saw this week. Over the first three weeks the Rams saw a light box on 23 percent of their designed runs. The designed runs gained 96 yards, about 4.4 a run, under the 5.3 of the first three weeks against heavier fronts, but three of them scored.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Williams: 16 carries for 82 touchdowns, +10 catches on 13 targets for 67, 31.7. Nacua: nine of 12 for a hundred 25 and the rushing touchdown, 23.2. Stafford 9.7, Higbee 9.2, Adams 5.2. For Philadelphia, Cooper caught both touchdowns, 16.8.

Last week's notebook had two lines. Stafford's ball after halftime, which produced three interception-worthy throws in Denver: this time both interceptions came before the break, and after it he was 20 of 30 for a hundred 97 with none. And a pass rush faced that had climbed every week: it fell away. Philadelphia sent five or more on five of 54 dropbacks, nine percent, the lowest rate any offense saw this week, after 33 percent across the first three weeks. What goes in the notebook now is the box. Three defenses crowded the Rams' run game and one emptied the box, and the yards per run went down while the touchdowns went up. The one to watch is which front the next defense picks.

That's your Rams — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Rams show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._