Rams 20, Commanders 13 — Week 9: Nacua, 19 Targets, the Winner

The Rams beat the Commanders 20-13 in Washington on Sunday, their third straight win, and moved to 5-4. They trailed 10-3 into the last three minutes of the first half, tied it 13-13 late in the third quarter, and took the lead for good on Puka Nacua's 7-yard touchdown early in the fourth. The defense allowed one touchdown, sacked Jayden Daniels four times, and took the ball away twice, the second on the game's last snap.

The passing game ran through one man and broke even, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, puts it at -0.8 on 43 pass plays: -0.02 a play against +0.07 through Week 8. Two giveaways did all the damage. A Nacua fumble cost -4.1 and an interception -2.8; the other 41 came to +6.1. Matthew Stafford completed 26 of 43 for 228 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked once. Nacua drew 19 of the 41 targets, 46.3%, and caught 14 for 150 yards, two of them on fourth down. The offense converted 3 of 14 third downs.

The run game held its level, and success rate shows it: 14 of 29 rush plays, 48.3%, gained what the situation asked for, against 46.3% through Week 8. They were worth +0.9 EPA, +0.03 a play against +0.02, for 124 yards and a touchdown. Blake Corum ran 11 times for 58 yards, 8 of them successful, and carried four times for 29 yards on the opening drive of the third quarter, the last from the 1 for a 13-10 lead. Kyren Williams ran 15 times for 45, and his 2-yarder on fourth and 1 at the Washington 29 kept the first scoring drive alive.

The pass defense won on sacks: four of them, matching the season high from Week 4, three by Myles Garrett. Washington's 38 pass plays were worth -5.9 EPA, -0.15 a play against -0.12 allowed through Week 8; on defense a negative number is good. Down 10-3 with 2:20 left in the half, first and 20 at midfield, Garrett sacked Daniels at the Washington 44 and knocked the ball loose, and Omar Speights recovered at the 46: -4.3 EPA and 12.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Stafford found Nacua for 15 yards on fourth and 3 four snaps later, and Brandon McManus kicked a 20-yard field goal with 5 seconds left. The leak came on the first snap of the second quarter, a 45-yard catch-and-run by Rachaad White to the Rams 7 that set up Washington's only touchdown. The defense stopped 8 of 12 third downs.

The run defense shut the door, and success rate allowed says how tightly: 5 of Washington's 19 rush plays succeeded, 26.3%, against 39.2% allowed through Week 8. They gained 60 yards and were worth -4.2 EPA, -0.22 a play against -0.09; negative is good here too. On third and 1 at the Washington 29 early in the third, Byron Young stopped Austin Ekeler for no gain, and Washington punted.

The game turned on a 12-play, 65-yard drive that bridged the third and fourth quarters, after Nick Cross's interception had set up the field goal that tied it 13-13. A false start left third and 11 at the Washington 36 with 19 seconds left in the third; Stafford went deep right to Nacua for 19 yards to the 17, +2.9 EPA and 10.9 points of win probability. Williams ran for 9 and converted a third and 1, and on second and 7 at the 7, Nacua caught a short throw to the left for the touchdown: +2.1 EPA and 17.4 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Washington's last real chance ended at the Rams 38 with 2:31 left, when Garrett sacked Daniels for a 12-yard loss on third and 5 and Emmanuel Forbes broke up the fourth-and-17 throw. On the final snap, Chig Okonkwo's 20-yard catch at the Rams 11 ended in two fumbles, the second recovered by Young.

Last week's episode asked whether a passing game at -0.19 a play would get back to the +0.09 it carried through Week 7. It got most of the way, to -0.02, and without the two giveaways its other 41 pass plays were worth +0.15 a play. The one to watch next: whether an offense that converted 3 of 14 third downs gets back to the 41 of 94 it converted through Week 8.

That's your Rams, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Rams on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._