Dolphins 13, Raiders 27 — Week 1: No Passing Touchdowns, Five Sacks

Miami lost in Las Vegas on Sunday, 27 to 13, and never led. The Dolphins did not hold a lead for a single second of the game; it was tied for the first 13 minutes and the Raiders led for the other 46 and a half. And the number that explains the afternoon is a success rate. Miami ran 32 pass plays. 11 of them were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. That is 34 percent, second-worst of the 28 teams whose games were in the books by Sunday evening. After halftime it was three successful pass plays in 18. In the fourth quarter, one in 13.

Start there, because the passing game is most of the story. 220 passing yards on the day, no touchdowns, one interception, five sacks taken for 35 yards, and −9 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and −9 ranks 20-third of the 28. In the first half, 14 pass plays produced +4 expected points, and two of Malik Willis's throws to Caleb Douglas, 25 yards on second and 26 30 yards on second and 10, set up both of Riley Patterson's field goals. In the second half, 18 pass plays produced −13. Three of the five sacks came on third down, and every third down of six yards or longer failed. The interception was a deep ball for Douglas from the Miami 23 with nine 49 left in the third, Treydan Stukes at the Las Vegas 34, and the Raiders turned it into a 13-play, seven-minute field-goal drive that made it 27 to 13. Miami had five snaps inside the Las Vegas 20 all afternoon and no goal-to-go plays at all.

The run game was nearly the same rank, and a different story. 18 rushing plays, 74 yards, one touchdown, −3 expected points, 20-fifth of the 28 per rushing play, six of the 18 successful. The touchdown was the play of the day, and it was a scramble: down 17 to six, second and 10 at the Las Vegas 14 with 12 52 left in the third, Willis went right end for 14. 17 to 13. That drive started at the Miami 48 because Michael Taaffe had intercepted Kirk Cousins on the second snap of the half. Seven points of win probability on the scramble, the biggest single play Miami had. It was as close as the Dolphins got; the Raiders answered with a five-play touchdown drive.

Field position kept arriving, and the offense kept declining it. Jaylen Wright returned a kickoff 79 yards to the Las Vegas 18 with two 34 left in the third, down 14. Two runs for five yards, then Nakobe Dean sacked Willis for a loss of 10 on third and five, and Patterson missed from 41, wide left. Dante Trader Junior intercepted Cousins with 11 32 left in the game and returned it to the Las Vegas 44. Two incompletions, an eight-yard sack, punt. Twice the defense and the return game handed the offense the ball in Raiders territory, and those two possessions produced a missed kick and a punt; the one takeaway that turned into points was the Taaffe interception, and that drive started at the Miami 48.

Penalties did the rest. Eight accepted flags for 61 yards, and two of them turned a first and five at the Las Vegas 26 into three points. First and five at the Las Vegas 26 with about seven minutes left in the half, a holding call on Patrick Paul wiped out a run and made it first and 15; the next snap, a holding call on Aaron Brewer wiped out a 10-yard Willis run and made it first and 25 from the 46. The 25-yard throw to Douglas got it back to the 22, a third and one went for −1, and Patterson kicked from 41. And on the other side of the ball, a taunting penalty on Julius Brents after a third and 13 incompletion handed Las Vegas a first down at its own 45; Matt Gay's 47-yard field goal came out of that drive.

The defense, on the ledger, was fine. Las Vegas ran 30 pass plays for a hundred 60 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, and those plays were worth roughly zero expected points; on defense a big negative number is the good direction, and zero is fourteenth of the 28. 13 of the 30 were successful. 34 rushing plays allowed for a hundred 36 yards and no touchdowns, −3 expected points allowed, eighth-best per rushing play, and in the fourth quarter Las Vegas ran eight times for zero yards. What the defense did not do was rush the passer: zero sacks. And it allowed the Raiders' opening drive to go 16 plays and 93 yards over nearly nine minutes, including a fourth and one at the Miami 34 that was ruled no gain and reversed on replay to a first down, and the three Raiders touchdowns all came on throws from inside the 20, 12 Las Vegas snaps inside the Miami 20 for three touchdowns.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. The ranks in this episode are against the 28 teams that had played by Sunday evening, not the whole league, and one game is one game. What there is, is last year. In 2025 this team went seven and 10. The offense finished 20-second in the league in expected points per play and 20-seventh in the rate of plays it made succeed, eighteenth through the air, seventeenth on the ground, 20-sixth on third down. The defense finished 20-sixth in expected points allowed per play and 20-ninth in the rate of plays it allowed to succeed. On Sunday the offense's success rate was 20-seventh of 28, which is about where the 2025 offense ranked. The defense held an opponent to roughly −2 and a half expected points and took the ball away twice, which is better than the 2025 defense. One of those is a continuation and one is a contradiction, and one game does not tell you which one holds.

Miami is at San Francisco next Sunday. Watch the passing game's success rate first, and watch whether the defense can get to the quarterback.

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_Data via nflverse._