Dolphins, Week 1 — What Repeats: Willis Threw Twelve Uncatchable

15 of Malik Willis's 27 throws in Las Vegas were charted catchable. 56 percent, 20-ninth of the 32 offenses that played in Week 1; the league median was 71, and across all of last season this offense's throws were catchable 72 percent of the time, 346 of 482. The Recap had the success rate and the 18 second-half pass plays, three of them successful. The charting adds that almost half his throws, 12 of the 27, were not catchable. Willis has no 2025 charting in this pack, so there is nothing to compare him to yet except the seat he was sitting in.

The rest of his charting is mixed. One of the 27 throws was interception-worthy — a ball a defender should have caught. He threw one interception, and the charting does not say whether it was that ball. One in 27 is 3.7 percent, tied for eleventh-highest in the league this week with the Chiefs and Chargers and a shade over the median of 3.4; this offense ran at 5.4 percent last season, 26 on 482 throws, so one bad ball in 27 is, on one game, an improvement on the seat. Four of the 27 were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 15 percent against 12 last year. The receivers dropped nothing — zero drops on 15 catchable balls. No throwaways. Five of his throws came off play-action and two were caught for 18 yards; the other 22 produced 13 completions and 202. And of the five sacks the Recap counted, two were charted as the quarterback's fault, on 32 dropbacks, when across all of last season this offense had six sacks charted on the passer in 533.

The scheme moved, and in one direction. Play-action on five of 37 dropbacks, 13 and a half percent, 20-ninth of 32 offenses this week, half of the 27 percent this offense ran across last season. Motion on 35 of 73 charted plays, 48 percent, thirteenth in the league and a little over the median of 45, but down from 56 percent a year ago. Screens on two of 37 dropbacks, five percent, against 11 last year. One run-pass option all game, against six percent of snaps last season. And 13 designed runs with a charted box, for 35 yards, against 37 dropbacks; Las Vegas showed a light box on two of the 13, 15 percent, thirtieth in the league this week, when this offense saw one on 48 percent of its designed runs last year. Every one of those dials was turned down on Sunday, and the Raiders still put seven or more in the box on 11 of the 13 designed runs.

The defense showed Las Vegas a light box on three of 33 designed runs — nine percent, the lowest share any offense in the league saw in Week 1, with an average of 7.4 defenders in the box. Last year opponents running against Miami saw a light box 45 percent of the time. The Raiders ran into it 33 times for a hundred and 33 yards, so the heavy box was there and the yards came anyway. The rusher count did not change: five or more rushers on 10 of Las Vegas's 31 dropbacks, 32 percent, thirteenth in the league this week and almost exactly the 33 percent this defense sent across last season — and it produced no sacks. Cousins put two of 30 throws up for grabs, seven percent, the fifth-highest interception-worthy rate of any offense this week, against just over three percent for opponents throwing at this defense last year. Miami intercepted him twice; the charting does not say whether those were the same two balls. The rest of his charting was tidy against this defense: 22 of 30 catchable, 73 percent, two contested, one drop, no throwaways.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Willis, 16.7 — 15 of 27 for 220, no touchdowns, one interception, and six carries for 39 including the 14-yard scramble that was Miami's only touchdown. Caleb Douglas led the receivers with five catches on seven targets for 94, 11.9. De'Von Achane, 11 carries for 36 four catches on five targets for 30, 8.6. Malik Washington caught three of eight targets for 53, and Chris Bell one of two for 25. For Las Vegas, Ashton Jeanty had 23 carries for a hundred and two and six catches on six targets for 45 with both of his touchdowns, 29.7; Cousins went 21 of 30 for a hundred and 60 with three touchdowns and the two interceptions, 13.8; Jack Bech caught three of four for 23 and the opening score.

One thing to be straight about, since the name of this show is a promise. After one game there is no within-season baseline to compare to, so everything above is measured against last season — a different roster, a year older, and at quarterback a different job. That comparison tells you what was unusual on Sunday. It does not tell you what is true about this team now. The version of this show that measures Miami against its own recent weeks starts working around Week 4, and until then we will say "last year" every time so nobody mistakes one for the other.

Here is where the thread starts. The Recap said what last season was: seven and 10, an offense 20-second in the league by expected points per play, a defense 20-sixth. The charting from Sunday says the offense was run with every dial turned toward simple — play-action halved, motion down, screens down, 13 designed runs against 37 dropbacks — and the quarterback's throws landed where a receiver could catch them 56 percent of the time. The defense, meanwhile, loaded the box harder than any defense in the league this week and sent five or more rushers at the same rate it did last year, and came away with two interceptions and no sacks. In the notebook: does the catchable rate climb toward this offense's 72 from last year, or does it stay near 56. And whether the pass rush finds a sack, because a defense that sends five or more a third of the time and sacks nobody is either an afternoon or a problem.

That's your Dolphins — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Dolphins show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._