Dolphins 13, 49ers 35 — Week 2: Inside the Ten Twice, Six Points

Second and goal at the San Francisco two, a minute four left in the first half, Miami down 14 to three. De'Von Achane ran at right guard and lost a yard. On third and goal from the three, Willis was sacked for no gain, and a holding flag on Miami wiped that out and made it third and goal from the 13. Achane ran for eight. With two seconds left, a 24-yard field goal. 14 to six. San Francisco got the ball to open the second half, threw for 40 yards on the first snap, and scored three plays after that. Miami lost 35 to 13 in San Francisco on Sunday, never led, and ran 12 snaps inside the San Francisco 20 without scoring a touchdown on any of them.

Start with the first half, because the game was there to be had in it. Miami's first three possessions reached the San Francisco 33, the six and the two, and they produced six points. The opening drive got to first and 10 at the San Francisco 36 in a scoreless game, and at that moment the win probability model had Miami at 53 percent, its high for the day. Then a false start. Three plays gained eight yards, and a 51-yard field goal went wide right. That miss cost eight points of win probability, the biggest single swing of the game in either direction. The second drive held the ball for more than nine minutes and got to first and goal at the six, down seven to nothing. Achane for no gain. A sack split by Fred Warner and Upton Stout for −4. Third and goal from the 10, and Willis was sacked again, out of bounds, for no gain. A 28-yard field goal. Inside the 20: 12 snaps, no touchdowns, two field goals, and −2 expected points added — expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is two points of value handed back in the part of the field where points are supposed to come easiest.

The flags belong in that story. Seven penalties against Miami, six of them on the offense: two false starts, an illegal formation and three holds. Both drives that snapped the ball inside the 10 had at least one.

The pass defense is the paragraph that explains the 35. San Francisco ran 22 pass plays and they were worth +23.3 expected points — on defense a positive number is the bad direction, and this was the worst of the 28 teams that have played this week, per play and in total. 20 completions on those 22 plays, no sacks, and one of the two incompletions was an intentional grounding penalty. 12 of the 22 gained 10 yards or more. For the comparison: at the rate Miami's pass defense allowed last season, when it ranked 20-sixth in the league, those same 22 plays would have been worth about +2.7. The third quarter is where it came apart. San Francisco threw 10 passes in the quarter and completed all 10, for a hundred 80 yards and +16.1 expected points. Five of them went for 20 or more: 40, 21, 21, 27 26.

Third down on defense was the same story from another angle. Two stops in seven tries, 20-seventh of the 28 teams that have played this week; only Detroit's defense has a lower stop rate so far. San Francisco converted its first five third downs, all five through the air, including a third and 11 from its own 28 that went for 21. Both Miami stops came in the fourth quarter at 35 to six, and one of them was the grounding penalty. The 49ers scored touchdowns on their first five possessions and did not punt until the fourth quarter. Inside the Miami 20 they ran 12 snaps, the same number Miami ran at the other end, and scored five touchdowns.

The run defense was not the problem. 25 San Francisco rush plays gained 97 yards and were worth −1.7 expected points, nineteenth so far this week per play. The two longest runs Miami allowed were both Brock Purdy scrambles on the same second-quarter drive, 10 yards and 18. No handoff gained more than eight. The three rushing touchdowns covered one yard, two yards and one yard, and each came after a completion had put the ball inside the five.

On offense, the passing game's success rate, the share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule, was 37 percent, 20-first of 28 so far this week. The expected points total reads better than that, +4.5 on 27 pass plays, twelfth so far this week, and it flatters. On third and four from the Miami 23 with two 41 left, down 35 to six, Willis threw deep right to Miller for 77 yards and a touchdown. That one play was worth +7. The other 26 pass plays were worth −2.6, with four sacks among them. 16 pass plays on first and second down were worth −4.6. 11 on third down were worth +9.1. Miami converted seven of 15 third downs, seventh-best so far this week, after going three of 10 last week and finishing in the bottom third of the league last season. It was five for five when it needed five yards or fewer and two for 10 when it needed seven or more.

The run game had a first half and then had nothing. 20 rush plays for 84 yards before halftime, nine for 18 after it. For the game, 29 rush plays, a hundred two yards, −4 and a half expected points, fourteenth per play of the 28 teams that have played this week, with a success rate of 45 percent that ranks seventh. The one run of 10 or more was Achane up the middle for 17 on second and six, with an extra lineman reported as eligible, late in the first quarter. Four plays later, on fourth and one at the San Francisco 31, down seven to nothing, Willis kept it up the middle for two, worth six points of win probability.

The third quarter on offense: seven pass plays, a sack included, netted 13 yards. On fourth and 15 from the Miami 39, down 28 to six, the punter Pinion fumbled in punt formation at the 27 and recovered at the 28, and San Francisco took over there. Two plays later it was a touchdown.

Now the thread, for anyone hearing this show for the first time. Miami went seven and 10 last season. The pass defense ranked 20-sixth in the league by expected points per play, the run defense 20-seventh, the passing offense nineteenth, the run game 20-first. In Week 1 Miami lost 27 to 13 in Las Vegas, and that game's figures said the offense was the problem and the defense was not: the passing game ranked 20-sixth of 32 that week and the run game 20-ninth, while the pass defense was sixteenth and the run defense ninth. This week turned that around. The offense moved the ball for a half, the offense's third-down rate and its rushing success rate were top-10 so far this week, and the pass defense went from the middle of the league to the bottom of it, closer to where it finished last season. What has not moved is the scoreboard. 13 points both weeks, and across the two games 17 red-zone snaps have produced one touchdown. Two games do not settle what this team is, and the two games do not even agree with each other. The red zone is the one thing they agree on.

Miami hosts Kansas City next Sunday afternoon. Watch what the offense does inside the 20, and watch whether the pass defense looks like Week 1 or like this.

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_Data via nflverse._