Dolphins, Week 2 — What Repeats: Every Dial Turned Back Up

Last week in Las Vegas, Miami ran an offense with every charting dial turned down. Against the 49ers on Sunday, every one of them went the other way. The Dolphins put a man in motion on 53 of 75 charted plays, 71 percent, the highest rate of the 32 teams that played this week; last week it was 48 percent, and across all of last season 56. Screens came on five of 28 dropbacks, 18 percent, also the highest in the league this week, a fraction ahead of the Chiefs; last week it was two of 37, and last season 11 percent. Play-action went from 13 and a half percent of dropbacks last week, 20-ninth in the league, to nine of 28 this week, 32 percent, ninth of 32 and above last season's 27. One game after a stripped-down plan, a busy one. What the busier plan produced: the five screens gained 28 yards between them. The nine play-action dropbacks produced three completions on seven throws for 41 yards.

Set that against the rusher count on the other side of the line. San Francisco sent five or more pass rushers on 12 of Miami's 28 dropbacks, 43 percent, ninth-highest of the 32 offenses this week, when this offense saw five or more on 23 percent of its dropbacks last season and 16 percent last week. On those 12, Malik Willis completed three of nine throws for 31 yards and was sacked twice. Against four or fewer rushers he completed 11 of 14 for 166, and 77 of those yards came on one throw to Ryan Miller; take that one away and it is 10 of 13 for 89. Willis took all 28 of Miami's dropbacks and was out of the pocket on eight of them, 29 percent, tied for sixth of the 32 teams this week with the Commanders, against 20 percent last season. The thing to watch on Sunday is the rusher count before the snap. When the 49ers brought a fifth man, this passing game produced three completions.

The ball charting improved, and still sits where it sat. Four of Willis's 23 throws were contested — a receiver and a defender arriving together — 17 percent, eighth-highest of the 32 offenses this week, against 15 percent last week and 12 percent for this offense across all of last season. One of the four was caught, for eight yards. 15 of the 23 throws were charted catchable, 65 percent, 20-fourth in the league; that is up from 56 percent last week and still under the 72 percent this offense managed last year. None of the 23 was interception-worthy, and Miami was one of 12 offenses with none this week. One drop on 15 catchable balls. No throwaways, for the second week running, when this offense threw 13 away last season. And two of the four sacks the Recap counted were charted as the quarterback's fault, both after halftime; the two second-quarter sacks near the goal line were not. He had two charted against him last week as well. That is four in two games, against six charted on Miami's passers across 533 dropbacks all of last season.

The run game got the box it did not get last week and did nothing different with it. San Francisco showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 17 of Miami's 28 designed runs, 61 percent, sixth-highest in the league this week. Las Vegas did it on two of 13 last week, 15 percent, thirtieth of 32, and across last season this offense saw a light box on 48 percent of its designed runs. 28 designed runs gained 98 yards, three and a half a carry, tied for twentieth of the 32 teams with the Packers. Into a light box, 17 runs for 61 yards; into seven or more, 11 for 37. Nearly the same. Last week the figure was 2.7, 30-first in the league, and last season 4.8. De'Von Achane took 20 of the 28.

The defense faced the most play-action in the league. San Francisco used it on 13 of 25 dropbacks, 52 percent, the highest share any defense saw this week, when opponents ran play-action against Miami on 21 percent of dropbacks last season. Miami answered with numbers: five or more rushers on 13 of those 25 dropbacks, 52 percent, third-highest of the 32 defenses this week behind Minnesota and Detroit, and up from 32 percent last week and 33 across last season. It produced no sacks. On those 13 dropbacks Brock Purdy completed nine of 11 for 162 yards. 21 of his 22 throws were catchable, the highest rate any defense allowed this week, and one of the 22 was contested, under five percent, tied for 20-sixth with the Steelers. Last week this defense contested seven percent of the throws against it, 20-fifth in the league; last season, 12. The run defense went back to last year's shape: a light box on 10 of 22 designed runs, 45 percent, fifteenth in the league and next to last season's 45, after nine percent last week, the lowest in the league. Those 22 runs gained 67 yards, about three a carry, 20-fourth-most of the 32 defenses, against 4.0 last week and 4.6 last season.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Willis, 12.5 — 14 of 23 for 197 and the touchdown, two carries for six. Miller, 14.2 on one target, the 77-yard score. Achane, 20 carries for 74 three catches on six targets for 19, 10.8. Malik Washington, four catches on five targets for 43, 6.7. For San Francisco, Purdy scored 28.5 on 20 of 22 for 287, two touchdowns through the air and one on the ground. Christian McCaffrey, 20.6 — 10 carries for 23 two touchdowns, four catches for 43. George Kittle, four for 80 and a score, 16 even.

A word on the comparison, since the show's name makes a promise it cannot yet keep. Through Week 3 every baseline here is last season, and last season was a different roster, a year younger, with a different quarterback in the seat. That comparison finds what is unusual. It does not tell you what is true. Last week is one game; it is last week, not this team's rate.

So here is what the name asks. Two games in, some things moved the same way twice. Throws charted catchable below last season's rate, both weeks. Contested throws above it, both weeks. Two sacks charted on the quarterback in each game, and no throwaways in either. Yards per designed run under last year's, both weeks, into heavy boxes and then into light ones. On defense, few contested balls against it and fewer yards per designed run than last season, both weeks. What reversed was the whole offensive plan — motion, screens, play-action, all down and then all up — and the defense's box; the rusher count did not reverse, it rose, from last season's rate last week to half of all dropbacks this week. Two games settle nothing. They do separate what the coaches changed from what did not change when the coaches did.

For anyone new: Miami went seven and 10 last season. In Week 1 it lost 27 to 13 in Las Vegas; on Sunday, 35 to 13 against the 49ers. Last week's notebook asked whether the catchable rate would climb toward last year's 72 percent, and whether a pass rush sending five or more a third of the time would find a sack. The answers so far: it climbed to 65, and the rush sent five or more half the time and still found none. What goes in the notebook now is the part that held while the plan changed around it — the charting on the quarterback, and a run game whose yards per carry stayed under last year's whatever box it saw. The Chiefs visit next Sunday.

That's your Dolphins — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Dolphins show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

And if you play fantasy, there's a Muffed show built around your exact roster — free at muffed.ai.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._