Dolphins 10, Chiefs 24 — Week 3: Run Defense Holds, the Rest Doesn't

Second and nine at the Kansas City 31, three 16 left in the first half, Miami down 14 to seven. The Dolphins had come from their own 12, 44 yards of it on one throw from Malik Willis to Bell, and stayed alive on fourth and three when a holding penalty on the Chiefs wiped out an incompletion. Willis kept it up the middle for three yards to the 28 and was ruled down. Kansas City challenged, and the ruling was reversed: a fumble, forced and recovered by Sneed at the 25. By expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — −3.7. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, 13 points, the biggest swing of the game, on a play that had been ruled over. Miami lost 24 to 10 at home, never led, and is oh and three. It was 17 to 10 with six minutes left.

Start with the run defense, because it is the unit that did not look like last season. Kansas City came in with a run game that ranked second in the league in Week 1 and third in Week 2 by expected points per rush play. Miami held it to −6.2 on 25 rush plays — on defense a negative number is the good direction — the third-best total of the 28 teams that have played this week, behind only Seattle and Washington. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks, those 25 carries would have been worth about −2; at last season's rate, when Miami's run defense ranked in the bottom quarter of the league, about +1. 15 of the 25 gained three yards or fewer. The stand came in the second quarter, Chiefs up 14 to seven, at the Miami 12: third and one, Walker up the middle for no gain, and on fourth and one Walker up the middle again, stopped by Brooks and Herring — 11 points of win probability and 3.6 expected points taken off Kansas City. It held again in the fourth quarter: first and goal at the Miami eight, Walker to the right end for a loss of six, and the Chiefs settled for a 34-yard field goal.

The pass defense has not fixed Week 2. At San Francisco it had the worst per-play pass defense game of the 92 team games played this season. Sunday was better than that and still near the bottom: 24 Kansas City pass plays produced +12.9 expected points, and of the 28 teams that have played this week, only Dallas and Arizona allowed more per pass play. 15 of the 24 were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, and the Dolphins did not record a sack. At last season's rate, when this pass defense ranked 20-sixth, those plays would have been worth about +3. At the rate of the first two weeks, about +11, so Sunday was close to what Miami had already been allowing. The first offensive snap of the game: Mahomes deep middle to Kelce for 48 yards to the Miami 19, 12 points of win probability, and three plays later it was seven to nothing. The last touchdown came after an illegal-block penalty pushed Kansas City back to second and 21 at the Miami 26: Rice for 15 to the 11, and on third and six Mahomes to Kelce for the score with three oh one left. The unit's best moment was the interception, second and eight at the Kansas City 49 with two minutes left in the half, Rodriguez at the Miami 29 and back 18 yards to the 47, 12 points of win probability.

The offense opens on third down, because it was better there than it has been: eight of 16, after three of 10 in Week 1 and seven of 15 in Week 2, and no three-and-outs for the first time this season. The down-by-down passing rate stayed low. 36 pass plays, no sacks taken, 13 successful — tied for 20-fourth of the 28 teams that have played this week by success rate — and −4 expected points, 210 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. At the rate of the first two weeks those 36 would have been worth about −3; at last season's rate, when the passing game ranked eighteenth, about zero. More than half the passing yards came on three throws: Bell for 44, Dulcich for 42, Malik Washington for 30. And the touchdown that would have tied it came off the board. On the opening series of the third quarter, after the Dulcich catch and a 19-yard catch by Gordon on third and 10, Miami had second and 13 at the Kansas City 14. Willis hit Washington for the score, and an illegal shift on Miami took it back. The next two snaps lost five and gained six, and Miami kicked a 37-yard field goal. 14 to 10, not 14 all.

The run game was busy and short. 31 rush plays, tied for fifth-most of the 28 teams that have played this week, for 119 yards, one touchdown and −6.1 expected points. Seven of the 31 were successful plays, the second-lowest rate this week, ahead of only Washington. At the rate of the first two weeks those carries would have been worth about −4 and a half; at last season's rate, when the run game ranked 20-second, about −1. The play-by-play lists De'Von Achane as injured on an 11-yard run on the opening drive. That drive was the good one: 91 yards over more than nine minutes, with conversions on third and four, third and eight and third and nine, plus a Kansas City penalty that moved the chains on third and 18, the last Gordon up the middle for 11 to the three, and Gordon from there for the touchdown.

Fourth down is where the day ended. Four fourth-down snaps: the one that moved the chains was the holding penalty in the second quarter, and the three plays Miami got off all failed. Fourth and four at the Kansas City 49 in the second quarter, down seven: incomplete. Fourth and five at the Miami 48 with six minutes left, down 17 to 10: incomplete, five points of win probability, and the Chiefs scored the touchdown that decided it on the next drive, 47 yards. Fourth and one from the same 48 at two oh three, down 14: intercepted by George Karlaftis. Nine drives: one touchdown, one field goal, two punts, the fumble, the interception, two turnovers on downs, and the final snaps of the game.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Miami went seven and 10, with a passing game eighteenth by expected points per play, a run game 20-second, a third-down offense and a run defense both in the bottom quarter of the league, and a pass defense 20-sixth. This season opened with two road losses: 27 to 13 at Las Vegas, when the passing and running games ranked 20-sixth and 20-ninth in the league, and 35 to 13 at San Francisco, when the pass defense had the worst game in the league. Sunday, the home opener, split the difference. The run defense had its best game of the three and held a run game that had been among the league's best in the first two weeks. The pass defense improved on Week 2 and still finished near the bottom. The offense moved the chains on third down and scored 10. Three games do not settle much. But the run defense is now the unit worth watching, because it is the one that argued with last year.

Miami is at the Vikings next Sunday, October fourth, in Minnesota.

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_Data via nflverse._