Dolphins 24, Bengals 31 — Week 5: 217 Rushing Yards, Three Turnovers

Miami lost 31-24 at home to Cincinnati on Sunday and is 0-5, beaten by its own passing game on a day the run game was the best unit on the field. The Dolphins ran for 217 yards and two touchdowns. They also turned the ball over three times, two interceptions by Jordan Battle and a strip-sack inside their own 10, and trailed 21-7 at the half and 28-10 after three quarters. Two fourth-quarter touchdowns got them within seven. The last, a 1-yard run by Malik Willis with 48 seconds left, was followed by an extra point that hit the left upright and an onside kick that went out of bounds.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, shows how badly. Its 29 pass plays were worth -12.2 EPA, -0.42 a play, against -0.19 through Week 4, and only 37.9% were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Willis went 15 of 27 for 137 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, both on throws for Kevin Coleman Jr. The charting says both were earned: 2 of his 26 charted throws were interception-worthy, a ball a defender should catch, 7.7%, after 3 in 103 through Week 4. He was catchable on 57.7%, against 61.2%. Cincinnati sent five or more pass rushers on only 5 of 33 dropbacks, 15.2%, against the 35.4% Miami saw through Week 4, and sacked him three times anyway. Malik Washington caught 6 of 8 targets for 43 yards; Coleman caught 3 for 30 and the 3-yard touchdown on third and 3 in the fourth.

The run game smashed, and its success rate leads: 52.9% of 34 rush plays were successful, worth +9.0 EPA, +0.26 a play against -0.09 through Week 4. Ollie Gordon II ran 18 times for 88 yards and a touchdown. Willis added 74 yards on 8 carries, 39 of them on a third-and-13 scramble on the first snap of the fourth quarter. Down 7-0 on the first drive, third and 10 at the Cincinnati 40, Gordon ran off right tackle for 22 yards before Barrett Carter brought him down at the 18. That snap was worth +2.6 EPA and 8.9 points of win probability, and the drive ended with Gordon's 1-yard touchdown on third and 1 to tie it 7-7. The 30 designed runs gained 144 yards, after 322 on 83 through Week 4, and Cincinnati showed six or fewer in the box on 16 of them, 53.3%, against 43.4%.

The pass defense allowed four touchdown passes, and the success rate it allowed is the verdict: 59.4% of Cincinnati's 32 pass plays were successful. They were worth +8.7 EPA, +0.27 a play, against +0.31 allowed through Week 4; on defense a positive number is the bad direction, so this was slightly better than usual and still bad. Joe Burrow went 23 of 32 for 190 yards. Three of the touchdowns were short, 4 yards to Mike Gesicki, 6 to Samaje Perine and 2 to Tanner Hudson. The fourth was not: up 21-10 with 47 seconds left in the third, second and 7 at the Miami 45, Burrow threw deep middle to Ja'Marr Chase for the touchdown. The coverage did make the throws harder. Burrow was contested on 7 of 32, 21.9%, against the 6.2% this defense allowed through Week 4, and catchable on 75%, against 84.1%. Miami sent five or more on 7 of 33 dropbacks, 21.2%, after 29%, and stopped 4 of 13 third downs.

The run defense lost its edge. Cincinnati's 29 rush plays came to 0.0 EPA, 0.00 a play, against -0.12 allowed through Week 4, with 51.7% successful and 119 yards. Miami played light, six or fewer in the box on 14 of 28 designed runs, 50%, against 37.1%. Jackson Woodard and Kenneth Grant dropped Chase Brown for a loss of 1 at the 5 in the second quarter; Perine caught the touchdown on the next snap.

The game turned in the second quarter, between 10:32 and 1:00. Down 14-7, two snaps after Willis hit Jalen Tolbert for 22 yards to midfield, he threw short left for Coleman on second and 10 and Battle intercepted, a snap worth -4.6 EPA and 9.9 points of win probability. The defense got it back: Brown fumbled at the Miami 7, Chop Robinson recovered and ran it out to the 18, Ja'Marr Chase stripped him, and Joshua Uche fell on it at the 23. Three snaps later, third and 4 at the Miami 29, Willis went short right for Coleman and Battle intercepted again. An unnecessary-roughness flag on Daxton Hill pushed Cincinnati back 15 yards, and it scored anyway, Hudson from 2 yards with a minute left: 21-7. The third quarter had its own miss. Gordon ran 13 yards to the Cincinnati 1, then lost 2, Willis was sacked for 8 by Carter, and Miami kicked a 29-yard field goal. 17 red-zone snaps produced three touchdowns.

The scheme pulled back from its own habits. Motion fell to 44.9% of charted plays, from 63.5% through Week 4. Play-action came on 7 of 33 dropbacks, 21.2%, after 26%, and it stopped working: Willis completed 1 of 6 play-action throws for 5 yards, after 16 of 29 for 210 through Week 4, and 14 of 20 for 132 without the fake. There was one screen, after 14. Willis left the pocket on 14 of 33 dropbacks, after 32 of 127, and none of the sacks was charted as his fault.

Last week's notebook asked two things. Whether the pass defense had turned after Minnesota: not yet, +0.27 a play allowed and four touchdowns, close to its Weeks 1–4 rate, though it contested far more of the throws than it had through Week 4. And whether Gordon would get more than nine carries: he got 18, and the run game was worth +9.0 EPA. The one to watch next: Willis' interception-worthy rate, 7.7% after 2.9%, and whether play-action, 1 of 6 on Sunday, gets back to what it was through Week 4.

That's your Dolphins, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Dolphins on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._