Dolphins 28, Jets 25 — Week 7: Douglas Goes 63, Willis Seals It

Miami won 28-25 at the Jets out of its bye, and it needed one long throw to get there. The Dolphins scored touchdowns on three of their four first-half drives and led 21-7 at halftime, then went scoreless for more than 25 minutes while New York closed to 21-17. Caleb Douglas's 63-yard touchdown with 4:55 left restored the cushion, and Malik Willis converted a fourth and 1 to run out the clock. Nine drives produced four touchdowns, a punt, three three-and-outs and the closing kneel-downs, with no turnovers.

The passing game Smashed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, says by how much. Its 23 pass plays were worth +11.4 EPA, +0.50 a play against -0.23 through its first five games, and 52.2% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Willis completed 14 of 21 for 208 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, and was sacked twice. Greg Dulcich caught all 5 of his targets for 86 yards, Douglas 2 of 3 for 70 and both scores, Malik Washington all 3 of his for 27 and Chris Bell 3 of 4 for 25. The opening drive set the tone. On second and 7 at the Jets' 36, Willis went deep left to Dulcich for 32 yards to the 4, +2.84 EPA and 8.7 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Two runs lost 3 yards, and on third and 7 at the 7, Willis threw short right to Douglas for the touchdown, +2.93 EPA.

The run game climbed above its standard, and success rate is the steady part: 48.7% of 39 rush plays succeeded, for 158 yards and two touchdowns. Together they were worth +6.2 EPA, +0.16 a play against +0.01 through its first five games. Most of that was Willis: five scrambles for 37 yards and +6.9 EPA, every one of them a positive play, including 5 yards on fourth and 2 at the Jets' 41 and the 2-yard touchdown with 12 seconds left in the half. Ollie Gordon II carried 25 times for 103 yards and a touchdown, worth +0.09 EPA, and converted fourth and 1 at the 2 before scoring from the 1. Jaylen Wright ran 6 times for 8.

The pass defense gave up more than its own poor standard, and total EPA allowed says how much: New York's 32 pass plays were worth +11.2, +0.35 a play against +0.30 allowed through its first five games. On defense a positive number is bad. Geno Smith completed 23 of 30 for 287 yards and three touchdowns, and Omar Cooper Jr. caught all 5 of his targets for 115 yards. The stop that mattered came up 14-7 early in the second quarter: first and 10 at the Miami 21, Smith threw short middle and Michael Taaffe intercepted at the 15, -4.87 EPA and 11.8 points of win probability for New York.

The run defense slipped below its standard and still won the snaps that counted, and EPA per play allowed opens it: New York's 20 rush plays were worth +2.2 EPA, +0.11 a play against -0.095 allowed through its first five games; here a positive number is bad. Braelon Allen ran 17 times for 104 yards. Down 21-14 early in the fourth, the Jets had first and goal at the 1 and lost a yard on each of two runs. On third and 3, Chop Robinson sacked Smith for a 12-yard loss, 13.0 points of win probability, and New York settled for a field goal.

The game turned on one second-down throw. Before it, Miami's 17 second-half plays had been worth -5.0 EPA, and a three-and-out had given the Jets the ball down 21-17. Up four with 4:55 left, second and 7 at his own 37, Willis threw short left to Douglas, who caught it 4 yards past the line and ran 59 more for the touchdown: +5.71 EPA and 17.6 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. New York answered with a touchdown and a two-point conversion for 28-25 with 3:24 left. Gordon ran for 14 and 7, the Jets spent their last two timeouts, and on fourth and 1 at the Jets' 49 with 2:00 left Willis went up the middle for 2, +10.5 points of win probability. He knelt twice from there.

Last week's notebook, written before the bye, asked about Willis's interception-worthy rate and whether play-action would come back. Both wait for the charting; the official line has no interceptions on 21 attempts, after 4 in his first five games. The one to watch next: whether a passing game worth +0.50 a play here, after -0.23 through its first five games, holds, and whether the pass defense gets back under the +0.30 it was allowing.

That's your Dolphins, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Dolphins on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._