Dolphins 19, Patriots 24 — Week 8: A 13-3 Lead, Then 21 Straight

Miami lost 24-19 to New England at home on Sunday and fell to 1-6, a week after winning at the Jets. The Dolphins led 13-3 at halftime on two Zane Gonzalez field goals and Malik Washington's 1-yard touchdown with 11 seconds left, then went three-and-out on their first two possessions of the second half while New England scored 21 straight. 10 drives produced two touchdowns, two field goals, Gonzalez's 43-yard miss, an interception and four punts, every one after a three-and-out. The turnover margin was even.

The passing game beat its own standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures by how much: 37 pass plays worth +4.0, +0.11 a play against -0.13 through Week 7. 48.6% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Malik Willis completed 21 of 32 for 211 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked five times for 16 yards, three of them in the first quarter. The best stretch closed the half. Up 6-3 with 1:50 left, third and 8 at his own 32, Willis went deep right to Greg Dulcich for 19, +1.5 EPA and 7.5 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Caleb Douglas caught an 18-yarder to the New England 6, Kevin Coleman Jr. took a short pass to the 1, and on third and goal Washington, hurt on a play earlier in the drive and back on the field, caught the touchdown. Down 24-13, an 84-yard drive in 1:51 ended with Coleman's 35-yard touchdown deep left, +4.4 EPA, and the two-point pass for Will Kacmarek fell incomplete.

The run game was Muffed, and success rate shows how rarely it worked: 7 of 23 rush plays succeeded, 30.4%, for 74 yards. They were worth -7.0 EPA, -0.30 a play against +0.04 through Week 7, its worst rate this season. Ollie Gordon II ran 19 times for 69 yards and -5.5 EPA, a week after 103 yards on 25 carries. After a fumble gave Miami the ball at the New England 19, Gordon gained nothing and then lost 3, and the drive ended in a 31-yard field goal. Up 13-10 in the third, his 5-yard run on second and 10 drew an unsportsmanlike-conduct penalty on him, turning it into third and 20 and a punt, -1.9 EPA. His longest run went 16.

The pass defense held for a half and gave it back after, and EPA by half shows the split: New England's 12 pass plays before the break were worth -6.0, the 11 after it +10.8. On defense a negative number is good. Over the game that was +0.21 a play allowed, still better than the +0.31 through Week 7. Jacob Rodriguez forced Efton Chism III's fumble at the New England 18 and Julius Brents recovered it. Chop Robinson had two sacks and Joshua Uche one, a 10-yard loss on third and 8 that forced a punt. After halftime Drake Maye completed 9 of 10 for 146 yards: Kyle Williams's 43-yard touchdown, ruled incomplete and awarded on a challenge, and DeMario Douglas's 48-yarder, 30 of it after the catch.

The run defense gave up more than usual, and EPA per play allowed opens it: New England's 33 rush plays were worth +1.8 EPA, +0.05 a play against -0.07 allowed through Week 7; here a positive number is bad. 16 of them succeeded, 48.5%, for 134 yards, and Rhamondre Stevenson ran 19 times for 82. The best stop came up 13-10 in the third: third and 1 at the Miami 22, Michael Taaffe and Jordyn Brooks dropped Corey Kiner for a 1-yard loss, 6.2 points of win probability. New England converted on fourth down and scored. With 1:51 left, Stevenson ran 5 yards on third and 5 at the Miami 38, upheld on review, and the Dolphins never got the ball back.

The game turned on two snaps early in the fourth. Down 17-13, second and 11 at his own 23, Willis threw deep middle for Caleb Douglas and Kevin Byard intercepted at the New England 47, -2.5 EPA and 5.9 points of win probability. After a 5-yard run, Maye threw deep right to DeMario Douglas for a 48-yard touchdown and 24-13. The next drive reached the New England 25, helped by Dre'Mont Jones's offside, which erased Christian Elliss's interception at the Miami 44. It stalled on third and 10 when a throw for Dulcich fell incomplete, and Gonzalez missed from 43 wide left with 6:45 left, -3.8 EPA. The offense converted 7 of 14 third downs.

Last week's notebook asked whether a passing game worth +0.50 a play would hold and whether the pass defense would get back under the +0.30 it was allowing. The passing game came down to +0.11 a play, still well above its -0.13 through Week 7; the catchable-throw count waits for the charting. The pass defense got under, at +0.21. The one to watch next: whether a run game at -0.30 a play, its worst this season, can find the +0.04 it carried into the week.

That's your Dolphins, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Dolphins on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._