Dolphins 9, Lions 19 — Week 9: Three Field Goals, No Touchdown

Miami lost 19-9 to Detroit at home on Sunday, its second straight loss, and fell to 1-7. The 9 points were its fewest this season. Zane Gonzalez kicked field goals from 34, 52 and 34 yards and hit the right upright from 38 on the last snap of the first half, with Miami down 6-3. Eight drives produced the three field goals, the miss, an interception, a turnover on downs and two punts, and Miami got inside the Detroit 20 three times without a touchdown.

The passing game fell below its own low standard, and success rate shows how little worked: 9 of 28 pass plays, 32.1%, were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at -5.4, -0.19 a play against -0.09 through Week 8, and that includes a 46-yard fake-punt completion worth +5.3. Malik Willis completed 13 of 25 for 128 yards with an interception and was sacked three times; Caleb Douglas caught 6 of 8 targets for 70 yards. Down 6-3 on the first drive of the third quarter, third and 11 at his own 35, Willis threw deep left for Douglas, and Chuck Clark intercepted at the Detroit 40 and returned it 34 yards to the Miami 26: -4.7 EPA and 7.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Detroit kicked a field goal.

The run game was Muffed, and EPA per play measures it: 21 rush plays worth -5.0, -0.24 a play against an even 0.00 through Week 8, with 23.8% successful for 77 yards. After halftime it ran 8 times for 13 yards, and none succeeded. Ollie Gordon II carried 16 times for 55 yards and -3.7 EPA.

The pass defense played well above its standard, and total EPA allowed shows how far: Detroit's 29 pass plays were worth -0.2, -0.01 a play against +0.30 allowed through Week 8, its second-best game this season by that measure. On defense a negative number is good. Jared Goff completed 17 of 25 for 170 yards, his fewest this season, without a touchdown pass, and was sacked by Joshua Uche, Zeek Biggers and Jacob Rodriguez; Detroit converted 3 of 12 third downs. Down 3-0 late in the first quarter, first and 10 at the Detroit 47, Goff threw short right for Amon-Ra St. Brown with Uche hitting him, and Chris Johnson intercepted at the Miami 40 and returned it 21 yards to the Detroit 39: -6.0 EPA for Detroit and 18.0 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Gonzalez's 34-yarder tied it at 3.

The run defense gave up more than its standard, and EPA per play allowed opens it: Detroit's 26 rush plays were worth +0.7, +0.03 a play against -0.05 allowed through Week 8; here a positive number is bad. It held before halftime, 13 runs worth -2.0, including a stop of Jahmyr Gibbs for no gain at the 4 by Uche and Jordyn Brooks on the opening drive. The 13 after the break were worth +2.7, the last of them Gibbs's 8-yard touchdown around right end on fourth and 1 for 16-6.

The game turned on Miami's best chance. Down 16-6 on the first snap of the fourth quarter, fourth and 3 at its own 36, Bradley Pinion threw from punt formation, short over the middle to Kaytron Allen, for 46 yards to the Detroit 18: +5.3 EPA and 17.7 points of win probability. Malik Washington's 7-yard catch on third and 6 made it first and goal at the 7. Then Alim McNeill sacked Willis for a 9-yard loss, and after a 4-yard Gordon run, Derrick Moore sacked him at the 16 on third and 12. Gonzalez kicked from 34 for 16-9, and Detroit answered with a 43-yard field goal.

Last week's episode asked whether a run game at -0.30 a play, its worst this season, could find the +0.04 it carried into Week 8. It did not: -0.24 a play here, its second straight game below -0.20. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that allowed -0.01 a play here, against +0.30 through Week 8, can hold anywhere near that level again.

That's your Dolphins, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Dolphins on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._