Eagles 24, Commanders 22 — Week 1: Ten First Downs and a Blocked Kick

Philadelphia beat Washington 24 to 22 on Sunday with 10 first downs. Washington had 20. Washington ran 68 offensive snaps to Philadelphia's 51, held the ball for 33 minutes 20 seconds, went two for two on fourth down, scored a touchdown on all three of its trips inside the Eagles' 20, and never turned the ball over. Neither did Philadelphia. The Eagles led for 44 minutes and 17 seconds, from Dallas Goedert's 17-yard touchdown catch with 14 17 left in the first half to the end, and the difference at the end was an extra point Jalen Carter blocked in the second quarter and a two-point conversion Washington could not get back with a minute and one second to play.

Start with the passing game, because every Eagles touchdown came out of it and it still was not efficient. 28 pass plays, 203 passing yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, three sacks taken for 21 yards. +1 expected point added on the day, eleventh of the 28 teams whose games were in the books by Sunday evening. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position. 10 of the 28 pass plays were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, and 36 percent is among the five worst rates of the week. What the passing game did was land the big one when it had to. Jalen Hurts deep right to Dontayvion Wicks for 64 yards, second and four from the Philadelphia 30 with one 57 left in the first quarter, put the ball at the Washington six; a holding penalty on Cam Jurgens wiped out the next snap and made it first and goal from the 16, two Saquon Barkley runs went −2 one, and on third and goal from the 17 Hurts found Goedert deep right for the touchdown. Seven to three, and Philadelphia never trailed again. Then the two that finished it: third and 18 at the Philadelphia 31, up 17 to 16 with eight oh three left, Hurts scrambled up the middle for 22, 16 points of win probability, the biggest positive swing on either side all afternoon. Three snaps later, third and six at the Washington 43, Hurts short middle to Goedert, who took it 43 yards for the score. Five expected points on one play, the highest single-play figure in the game. 24 to 16 with six 12 to play. Both Goedert touchdowns and the scramble came on third down. Philadelphia converted six of 14 third downs, and five of the six conversions gained 17 yards or more.

The run game was better by rank, and one carry plus the quarterback's scrambles account for 90 of its yards. 23 rushing plays, a hundred 38 yards, no touchdowns, +2 expected points, seventh of the 28 per rushing play, and eight of the 23 successful. Barkley went 42 yards behind the right guard on third and two from the Philadelphia 46 with eight 10 left in the half, to the Washington 12, and Wicks scored from the nine two snaps later. 14 to three. The 18 designed runs, that carry included, went for 90 yards and −2 expected points; Hurts's five scrambles went for 48 yards and +4. The offense had six snaps inside the Washington 20 all game, and two of its three trips there were touchdowns. In the third quarter, three straight Eagles drives lasted three snaps each, and the quarter came out at −6 expected points on 15 snaps. In the fourth quarter Philadelphia ran eight offensive snaps and got a touchdown drive out of them. The Eagles never went for it on fourth down, including a fourth and two from their own 34 in the third quarter.

The defense allowed 22, and the shape of it was long drives rather than long plays. Washington ran 36 pass plays for a hundred 64 yards and two touchdowns, +4 expected points allowed. On defense a big negative number is the good direction, and +4 allowed is nineteenth of the 28. But 13 of the 36 were successful, a 36 percent rate that is sixth-best of the week, so the yardage came in pieces. Washington's longest completion was 33 yards, Jayden Daniels deep left to Antonio Williams on third and 14 with 12 12 left in the game, and three snaps later Stefon Diggs scored from the 10. On the ground, 32 rushing plays allowed for a hundred 32 yards and one touchdown, roughly zero expected points allowed, and 16 of the 32 successful, a 50 percent rate that is among the eight worst of the week. Washington had 16 snaps inside the Philadelphia 20 and scored three touchdowns; Philadelphia stopped 10 of 15 third downs and did not take the ball away once. One sack, for one yard. And then the two plays that decided the game were a blocked kick and a two-point try. Washington scored from the one with one 56 left in the half, Carter blocked Drew Stevens's extra point, and it was 14 to nine instead of 14 to 10. With one oh one to play, after Williams's one-yard touchdown catch made it 24 to 22, Daniels's two-point pass to John Bates was complete and short. 13 points of win probability on that one snap, the largest negative swing in the game for either offense. DeVonta Smith recovered the onside kick, and Hurts knelt twice.

Two things in the ledger that were not good. Washington's passing game produced −4 expected points in the first half and +7 in the second; in the fourth quarter alone, 13 pass plays produced +11 eight of them were successful. And Philadelphia's offense produced 10 first downs in a game where the other team produced 20, which is not a sentence that usually goes with a win.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. The ranks in this episode are against the 28 teams that had played by Sunday evening, not the whole league, and one game is one game. What there is, is last year. In 2025 this team won 11 games with an offense that finished sixteenth in the league in expected points per play, fourteenth through the air, sixteenth on the ground, 20-second on third down, and second in the league at turning red-zone trips into touchdowns. The defense finished eighth in expected points allowed per play and eighth in the rate of plays it allowed to succeed. On Sunday the offense scored on two of three trips inside the 20 with six snaps, which is the 2025 red-zone offense. It also succeeded on 36 percent of its pass plays and needed a 64, a 42, a 31 and a 43 to get where it went. The defense allowed a 50 percent success rate on the ground and three touchdowns on three red-zone trips, which is not the unit that ranked eighth. One game, one opponent, and both halves of that are open.

Philadelphia is at Tennessee next Sunday. Watch the passing game's success rate, and watch whether the run defense holds up on early downs.

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_Data via nflverse._