Eagles 24, Titans 20 — Week 2: Sixty-Five Yards, No Timeouts

One 56 left, down 20 to 17, the ball at the Philadelphia 35 and no timeouts, because the Eagles had spent their last two stopping the clock on defense. By the win probability model they had a 29 percent chance. An incompletion, four yards to DeVonta Smith, and then third and six from their own 39 with one 48 left: Jalen Hurts deep right to Dontayvion Wicks for 20, worth 17 points of win probability. Nine to Smith, six more to Smith, an incompletion, a four-yard scramble, and it was third and six again, at the Tennessee 22 with 20 seconds left. Hurts deep left to Smith, pushed out of bounds at the three. 12 more points. Tennessee called timeout, and on first and goal with 14 seconds left Hurts threw short middle to Darius Cooper for three yards and the touchdown. 37 points of win probability on one snap, the biggest swing of the game. Philadelphia won 24 to 20 in Nashville and is two and oh.

Start with third down, because that drive was the afternoon in miniature. 11 of 18, 61 percent, fourth of the 28 teams that have played this week; only Buffalo, San Francisco and Dallas converted at a better rate so far. And these were not short ones. 10 of the 18 needed seven yards or more, and four of those converted. Philadelphia faced third and 12 five times and converted three: 27 yards to Wicks on the opening drive, 15 to Wicks in the second quarter, 13 to Smith from the Philadelphia 29 in the fourth. The one fourth-down play that stood worked too, fourth and two at the Tennessee 46 out of a timeout, tied at seven, Hurts short left to Wicks for five. That drive started at the Philadelphia 19, ran seven and a half minutes, and ended in a way that fit the day. A holding penalty wiped out a short run and made it second and 19 from the Tennessee 22, and on the next snap, a minute 55 before the half, Hurts went deep right to Smith for 22 yards and the touchdown. 11 points of win probability, and a lead the Eagles held into the last minute of the third quarter.

The passing game as a whole: 40 pass plays, 264 yards, two touchdowns, and +8.8 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is the value the passing game created above what those situations were already worth. Tenth per play so far this week, and the yardage was seventh. But that total is carrying one enormous negative. Third and eight at the Tennessee eight, six 11 left in a scoreless first quarter, Hurts threw short right for Smith and Amani Hooker intercepted it two yards deep in the end zone and returned it 92 yards to the Philadelphia 10. −9.2 expected points and −28 points of win probability on one throw, and Tennessee scored four plays later. Take that snap out and the other 39 pass plays were worth about +18. For the comparison: at the rate Philadelphia's passing game produced last season, those same 40 plays would have been worth a little under +2, and at the rate Tennessee's pass defense allowed last season, about +7.

The run game is where this week argues with last week. 31 percent of Philadelphia's rush plays were successful, meaning they kept the offense on schedule, which ties the Chargers for nineteenth of 28 this week. 32 rush plays, tied for third-most so far this week, produced 89 yards and −6 expected points, eighteenth per play. There was no run of 10 yards or more; the longest was nine. 18 of the 32 gained three yards or fewer. After halftime it was 10 rush plays for 19 yards. The one rushing touchdown was Tank Bigsby up the middle from the two on second and one, early in the second quarter, and the extra point tied the game at seven. The play-by-play notes that Saquon Barkley was injured on Philadelphia's first offensive snap and returned after halftime. The volume was there and the value was not.

On defense, the number that travels is a hundred 83 passing yards allowed, sixth-fewest of the 28 teams that have played this week. Tennessee's 22 pass plays were worth −0.1 expected points, which is break-even, twelfth so far this week, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. No touchdown passes allowed. The yards that did come arrived in four pieces: completions of 28, 27, 25 41 made up a hundred 21 of the hundred 83, and the other nine completions went for 62. And the defense made the play that kept the last drive a winning one. First and goal at the Philadelphia nine, two 37 left, tied at 17, Tennessee sitting at 78 percent to win, its high point of the day. Jalen Carter sacked Cam Ward for a loss of nine. Two runs later Tennessee kicked a 33-yard field goal, and the deficit stayed at three.

The run defense is the unit that put them in that spot. Tennessee's 29 rush plays were worth +3.9 expected points, and here positive is the bad direction. Only Cleveland and Detroit have allowed more expected points on the ground so far this week, and per play it was 20-fifth of 28. A hundred 22 yards, two touchdowns, both of them one-yard runs by Ward, and 48 percent of those rush plays were successful. It got worse late: 19 rush plays for 84 yards after halftime. The one that should not happen was third and 22 at the Philadelphia 36, tied, two 44 left. Tyjae Spears ran left end for 27 yards to the nine. 19 points of win probability handed over on third and 22. The defense's third-down stop rate, seven of 13, ties Arizona for twentieth so far this week.

Two more entries for the ledger. The turnover margin was −2, and of the 28 teams that have played this week only Atlanta's is worse. Philadelphia has not forced a turnover in either game this season. And Jake Elliott hit from 58 yards on fourth and 10 in the third quarter to make it 17 to 10, three points that mattered in a game that was tied for about 35 of its 60 minutes. Philadelphia ran 72 pass and rush plays to Tennessee's 51 and still needed the last 14 seconds.

Now the longer view, for anyone joining this week. Last season the Eagles went 11 six with a pass defense that ranked fifth in the league by expected points per play, an offense in the middle of the pack, thirteenth passing and fourteenth rushing, and a third-down offense in the bottom half of the league. In Week 1 they beat Washington 24 to 22, and that game said the opposite of this one: the run game was eighth in the league with a hundred 38 yards on 23 rush plays, on a success rate of 35 percent, against 31 this week, third down was six of 14, and the pass defense was 20-first. This week the run game was eighteenth of 28, third down was fourth, and the pass defense was twelfth. The run defense is the piece moving in one direction, sixteenth last season, seventeenth last week, 20-fifth of 28 so far this week. Two wins by a combined six points, against a team that went three and 14 last season and a Washington team they beat by two, do not settle which version is real. What two games do say is that the passing game has been the steadier half of the offense.

Philadelphia's next game is at Chicago on Monday night. Watch the run defense first, and watch whether the ground game can produce a run of 10 yards.

That's your Eagles — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Eagles show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

And if you play fantasy, there's a Muffed show built around your exact roster — free at muffed.ai.

_Data via nflverse._