Eagles 7, Bears 27 — Week 3: First and Goal at the One, No Points

Second and four at the Chicago 15, a little over eight minutes left in the second quarter, Eagles down seven to nothing. Saquon Barkley went around left end for 14 yards and was pushed out at the one — first and goal, on a drive that had gone from Philadelphia's own three to the Chicago one in 12 plays. Barkley lost a yard. Barkley was stopped for no gain. And on third and two from the two, with Andy Dalton at quarterback — the play-by-play marks Jalen Hurts injured on a scramble earlier in the drive, a snap wiped out by offsetting penalties, and back for the last drive of the half — Dalton's throw over the middle for Dontayvion Wicks was intercepted in the end zone by Dillon Thieneman. Touchback. By expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — that throw cost Philadelphia 5.6. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, it cost 13 points, the biggest swing of the night. The Eagles never led on Monday night in Chicago, the model never gave them a better chance than the 45 percent it gave them at kickoff, and they lost 27 to seven.

The passing game had, per play, the worst night any team has had this season. 28 pass plays — that count includes sacks — were worth −20.1 expected points, last of the 32 teams this week, and per play, −0.7, the worst of the 96 team games played this season. A hundred 41 net passing yards was thirtieth of 32, and 32 percent of the pass plays were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, 20-ninth. At the rate this passing game played over the first two weeks, 28 plays would have been worth about +4; at last season's rate, when it ranked thirteenth, about +1. Five snaps carried most of it: the two interceptions, two sacks and a lost fumble together cost 14 and a half expected points, and the other 23 pass plays were still worth −5.6. The best of the night was the drive before halftime: second and five at the Chicago 49, one 12 left, down 10 to nothing, Hurts deep right to DeVonta Smith for 30 to the 19, +2.2 and six points of win probability. Five plays later Hurts went up the middle from the one with one second left. 10 to seven at the half.

After halftime the passing game gained 30 net yards — 42 before the two sacks — on 14 pass plays worth −12.4 expected points. The first three drives of the half were three-and-outs, the fourth ended with T.J. Edwards intercepting Hurts on fourth and five at the Chicago 46, and the last ended on fourth and 22 after Dayo Odeyingbo's 10-yard sack. Third down was two of nine, 22 percent, thirtieth of 32 this week, and none of the five needing seven or more was converted. The whole second-half offense: 20 plays, 62 yards, −13 expected points, no points.

The run game was a unit that beat every baseline it had. 19 rush plays, a hundred seven yards, +5.8 expected points — +0.3 per play, second of the 32 teams this week behind only Atlanta, and the fifth-best per-play rushing game of the 96 played this season. At the rate it ran over the first two weeks, those 19 carries would have been worth about −1; at last season's rate, when it ranked in the middle of the league, about zero. Only three teams ran it fewer times this week, and 13 of the 19 came before halftime, for 75 yards; six came after, for 32. The longest was a 20-yard Hurts scramble in the fourth quarter; the long designed runs were all Barkley before halftime: 12, 17, and the 14 to the one.

The pass defense got no sack and no takeaway. 34 Bears pass plays were worth +7.3 expected points allowed — on defense a negative number is the good direction — 20-second of 32 per play this week, with 247 net yards allowed, twentieth. Case Keenum took every Bears snap at quarterback, with Caleb Williams out with a hamstring strain, per the Bears' own team site. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks, 34 plays would have been worth about +2.8; at last season's rate, when it was a top-five pass defense, about −4.3. Fourth and one at the Philadelphia 32 on Chicago's opening drive, no score: Keenum short left to Sam Roush for 16, +2.6 expected points and about 10 and a half points of win probability, the biggest swing on a Chicago snap all night, three plays before Luther Burden's touchdown. Then, up 13 to seven in the third, Keenum short over the middle to Kalif Raymond for a 41-yard touchdown from the Philadelphia 41, +3.4 and eight points of win probability.

The run defense also beat both its baselines, narrowly on one. 33 Bears rush plays — only two teams ran it more this week — gained a hundred 30 yards and were worth −1 expected point allowed, tied for seventeenth with Baltimore per play this week. At the rate of the first two weeks those 33 would have been worth about +2; at last season's rate, when this run defense ranked sixteenth, about −1. It held for a half: 13 Chicago runs for 27 yards before the break, 20 for a hundred three after it. The drive that put it away, 13 plays over about eight minutes from the Chicago 42 after the Edwards interception, was twice extended by Philadelphia flags, the second wiping out a Moro Ojomo sack on third and five, before Keenum went up the middle from the one on third and one. 26 to seven with seven 21 left, 27 after the kick.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season the Eagles went 11 six with a passing game that ranked thirteenth in the league by expected points per play, a run game in the middle of the league, a top-five pass defense and a run defense that ranked sixteenth. The first two weeks were wins by two over Washington and by four at Tennessee, with the passing game thirteenth and then twelfth of 32 and the giveaways none and then two. Monday flipped the offense: the passing game went to last of 32, the run game from 20-first to second, and the giveaways to three. Three games do not settle what this offense is. The Eagles are two and one, and Monday was the first game this season in which the passing game finished below zero.

Philadelphia hosts the Rams next Sunday, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._