Eagles 20, Rams 24 — Week 4: Oh for Twelve on Third Down

Fourth and two at the Los Angeles two, seven 31 left in the game, the Eagles up 20 to 10. The drive had started at the Philadelphia 36 on the first snap of the fourth quarter, and it was 10 straight running plays: four Tank Bigsby carries for 32 yards, a 14-yard Jalen Hurts scramble, and four Will Shipley carries down to the two. On third and two Hurts went around right end and Lake stopped him for no gain. On fourth down Hurts threw short left for Darius Cooper, and it fell incomplete. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, that throw was −2.9. The Rams took over at their own two and went 98 yards in 10 plays for a touchdown. Philadelphia went three-and-out. The Rams went 79 more, and Kyren Williams scored from the seven with a minute 17 left. Rams 24, Eagles 20.

The second half is where it went. Philadelphia ran 28 plays after halftime for 72 yards and scored nothing; its six possessions ended in three punts and three turnovers on downs. Across the whole game the Eagles faced 12 third downs and converted none of them. Hurts was 10 of 18 for 83 yards and two touchdowns at the half, and two of nine for 10 yards after it, with two sacks.

The passing game opens on the ball itself. 12 of Hurts's 27 throws were charted catchable, 44 percent, the lowest of the 30 charted offenses this week. Over the first three weeks he was at 68. No drops, two throwaways, and one interception-worthy throw, a ball a defender should have caught, that nobody did. By expected points the 31 pass plays, four sacks among them, came to −8.2, about minus a quarter of a point a play, after about minus a tenth a play over the first three weeks. Both touchdowns went to Cooper in the last six minutes of the first half. The first came after Covey's 41-yard punt return to the Los Angeles 17: second and 11 at the 18, up six to three, Hurts deep right for Cooper and the score, +3.1 expected points. The second came with nine seconds left, 10 yards over the middle, one snap after a 25-yard pass interference call on McDuffie. Cooper had two catches all season before Sunday.

The Rams came after Hurts. They sent five or more pass rushers on 16 of his 32 dropbacks, half of them, the fifth-highest rate any offense saw this week, after 35 percent across the first three weeks. Four sacks, Young in on three of them, two on the last drive. The charting put none of the four on Hurts, after six of the eight he took in the first three weeks. Play-action came back a little: seven of 32 dropbacks, 22 percent, seventeenth of the 30, up from 18 percent over the first three weeks. Motion jumped to 40 of 79 charted plays, 51 percent, tenth of the 30, after 42 percent over the first three weeks.

The run game opens on its success rate. A third of its 27 rush plays were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, and together they came to −8 and a half expected points and a hundred four yards, about −3 tenths of a point a play, after a season rate just above zero. Saquon Barkley carried twice. The second, first and 10 at the Los Angeles 28, went six yards with the ball coming out of bounds, and the play-by-play marks him injured on the play; he did not touch the ball again. Bigsby carried 14 times for 55, Shipley six for 23. The Rams played light against it: six or fewer in the box on 19 of 26 designed runs, 73 percent, the third-highest rate of the 30 charted offenses, after 56 percent over the first three weeks. The designed runs gained 90 yards, about three and a half a run, under the 3.9 of the first three weeks. The short-yardage snaps cost the most. Third and one at the Los Angeles six on the first drive, Bigsby lost five and Philadelphia kicked a field goal. Fourth and one at its own 38 late in the third, up 10, Hurts went up the middle for no gain, −3.4. Then the two snaps at the two.

The pass defense's zero is gone, and two interceptions came with it. Through three weeks opponents had thrown 88 passes at this defense without one charted interception-worthy ball. Matthew Stafford threw three on 51, six percent, seventh-highest of the 30 this week, and Philadelphia caught two. Mukuba took the first on the Rams' opening drive, first and five at the Los Angeles 30, deep right for Konata Mumpfield, and returned it 21 yards to the 28: −5.9 expected points to the Rams and 15 points of win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment. DeJean took the second with 34 seconds left in the half, deep right for Puka Nacua, and brought it back to the Rams' 35, which set up Cooper's second score. Over 52 pass plays the Rams came out at +1.1 expected points, close to zero a play, against more than a tenth of a point a play allowed over the first three weeks; on defense, the lower number is the good one. It did that without extra rushers: five or more on five of 54 dropbacks, nine percent, the lowest of the 30 charted defenses, after 26 percent over the first three weeks. One sack, by Smith. Then the last two drives: Stafford 12 of 15 for a hundred 40 yards, Nacua finishing with nine catches for a hundred 25.

The run defense allowed 24 rush plays a hundred seven yards, three touchdowns and +3.4 expected points, about +0.1 a play, after a near-zero rate over the first three weeks. It played light too. Six or fewer in the box on 18 of 22 Rams designed runs, 82 percent, the second-highest rate any offense saw this week, after 60 percent over the first three weeks. Those runs gained 96 yards, about 4.4 a run, against 3.9 allowed over the first three weeks. Williams had 16 carries for 80 and both fourth-quarter touchdowns, and Nacua ran in the other from the two before halftime. Three touchdowns on 10 red-zone snaps.

The turning point came between the Rams' two scores. Up 20 to 17, third and four at the Philadelphia 46 with three 10 left, Hurts threw short over the middle for Zach Ertz, and Curl broke it up. That incompletion cost 6.9 points of win probability. After a delay of game and a punt, the Rams started at their own 21 with two 55 left.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Cooper: three catches on seven targets for 33 yards and two touchdowns, 16.8. Hurts, 13 and a half. For the Rams, Williams scored 31.7, and Nacua 23.2.

The notebook after Chicago held a list. The sacks charged to Hurts: broken, none of four. The accuracy: worse, the least catchable passing of the 30 charted offenses. The light boxes that went away: back, the third-highest rate in the league, and the run game still could not use them. The motion rate that fell to second-last: back over half. And the defense's zero: gone, with two interceptions to show for it. The Eagles are two and two, and the one to watch now is third down, where 12 tries produced nothing and the throws were the least catchable in the league.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._