Eagles 17, Jaguars 19 — Week 5: Led With 12 Seconds Left

Philadelphia lost 19-17 in Jacksonville, and it was ahead with 12 seconds left. Jalen Hurts drove the Eagles from their own 38 to the Jacksonville 30 in the final 1:35, and Jake Elliott's 48-yard field goal made it 17-16. Elliott's kickoff went to the Jacksonville 8, Ameer Abdullah returned it 53 yards to the Philadelphia 39, and Cam Little made a 57-yard field goal with 1 second left. The Eagles led 14-7 at halftime and 14-10 for most of the second half.

The passing game was better than its season and still not good, by expected points added (EPA): what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, against what the situation was already worth. Its 41 pass plays were worth -0.6 EPA, -0.02 a play, against -0.14 through Week 4, with 36.6% of them successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Hurts completed 21 of 40 for 220 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions. The touchdown was the play of the half: tied 7-7, third and 10 at his own 38, Hurts threw deep right to Darius Cooper for 62 yards, +6.7 EPA and 22.4 points of win probability. Dontayvion Wicks caught 5 of 8 for 63, two of them third-down conversions on the second-quarter touchdown drive, the second an 18-yarder to the Jacksonville 9. Dallas Goedert caught 6 of 9 for 38, the longest 17 yards to the Jacksonville 34 on the last drive.

The charting puts this passing game back at its usual level. 24 of Hurts' 40 throws were catchable, 60%, against 62.3% on his throws through Week 4. Five were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 12.5%, against 10.5%. None was interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, after 4 through Week 4, and he threw 4 away. Jacksonville sent five or more pass rushers on 17 of 42 dropbacks, 40.5%, near the 38.4% this offense saw through Week 4, and sacked him once. Hurts left the pocket 7 times on 42 dropbacks, after 36 times on 137.

The run game was Muffed, and the yardage says it: 18 rush plays, 22 yards. They were worth -11.4 EPA, -0.63 a play, against -0.06 through Week 4, and 22.2% were successful. The 17 designed runs gained 20 yards. Jacksonville played heavy against them, six or fewer in the box on 7 of 17, 41.2%, against 61.1% this offense saw through Week 4. Dameon Pierce ran 11 times for 14 yards; Will Shipley ran 5 times for 6 and scored from the 2. The first stop set the tone: scoreless in the first quarter, fourth and 1 at the Jacksonville 37, Shipley went off right guard for no gain, -3.0 EPA. The last cost yardage: third and 3 at the Jacksonville 27 with 17 seconds left, Pierce lost 3, and Elliott's kick came from 48.

The pass defense was beaten through the air, and EPA per play shows it. Jacksonville's 41 pass plays were worth +10.2 EPA, +0.25 a play, against +0.09 allowed through Week 4; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. Trevor Lawrence threw for 331 yards and two touchdowns, both to Parker Washington, who caught 6 of 9 for 124. Philadelphia sent five or more on 15 of 44 dropbacks, 34.1%, against 19.9% through Week 4. Jalen Carter sacked Lawrence twice and forced a fumble both times, though Jacksonville recovered each. Up 14-10 in the third, with Jacksonville facing third and 7 at its own 46, Quinyon Mitchell intercepted a deep throw for Brian Thomas Jr. at the Philadelphia 26. Jacksonville's receivers dropped 3 of 26 catchable balls, 11.5%, after 5.4% against this defense through Week 4.

The run defense held, and the success rate tells it: 29.6% of Jacksonville's 27 rush plays were successful. They were worth -5.9 EPA, -0.22 a play, against +0.06 allowed through Week 4; here a negative number is the good direction. Bhayshul Tuten carried 22 times for 72. Philadelphia showed six or fewer in the box on 12 of 24 designed runs, 50%, heavier than its 64.5% through Week 4. The best of it was the goal-line stand before halftime. Up 14-7, Jacksonville had first and goal at the 1 with 15 seconds left. Zack Baun stopped Chris Rodriguez Jr. for no gain, two throws fell incomplete, and on fourth and 1 Baun threw Tuten for a 6-yard loss around left end, -3.9 EPA to Jacksonville. Across the game Jacksonville ran 13 red-zone snaps and scored no touchdowns.

The game turned on a fourth and 5 Philadelphia could not stop. Up 14-10 with 6:40 left, the defense had already stopped one at its own 5, Lawrence's throw for Jakobi Meyers falling incomplete. Then the offense went three-and-out from its own 6, and Jacksonville came back. With 3:26 left, fourth and 5 at the Philadelphia 27, Lawrence threw deep right to Washington for the touchdown, 37.2 points of win probability against Philadelphia, the biggest swing of the game. The offense had turned the ball over on downs twice itself, at the Jacksonville 37 in the first quarter and on fourth and 3 at the Jacksonville 43 late in the third, when Hurts' throw for Makai Lemon fell incomplete, broken up by Travis Hunter. Five of its 11 drives were three-and-outs.

The scheme moved more and optioned less. Motion came on 53.8% of charted plays, against 44.5% through Week 4. Run-pass options fell to 1, 1.7% of snaps, after 18 through Week 4, 7.9%. No-huddle dropped to 6.8% from 13.6%, and there was 1 screen in 42 dropbacks. Play-action rose to 9 of 42, 21.4%, from 18.8%, and Hurts went 6 of 9 on those throws for 39 yards.

Last week's question was third down, where the Rams stopped every try, along with throws that were hard to catch. Both came back: 6 of 15 on third down, and a catchable rate back at Hurts' own level. The one to watch next is the run game, 22 yards on 18 plays with the run-pass options all but gone, and whether the defense keeps sending extra rushers after Carter's two strip-sacks.

That's your Eagles, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Eagles on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._