Eagles 14, Panthers 25 — Week 6: Five Three-and-Outs at Home

Philadelphia lost 25-14 at home to Carolina, and it never led. Ryan Fitzgerald's 47-yard field goal put the Panthers ahead 3-0 midway through the first quarter, and they stayed ahead the rest of the way. Five of the Eagles' 11 drives were three-and-outs, they kicked no field goals, and neither side turned the ball over. Philadelphia closed to 19-14 with 10:48 left and did not score again.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures how far. Its 48 pass plays were worth -8.6 EPA, -0.18 a play against -0.11 through Week 5, and 37.5% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Tanner McKee completed 26 of 45 for 215 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions, and was sacked three times, the first on the opening snap, Bobby Okereke for 11 yards. DeVonta Smith drew 14 targets and caught 7 for 75; Dallas Goedert caught 6 of 8 for 61. Third down went 6 for 15, and the deep throws to Smith on third and fourth down all fell incomplete.

The run game was barely part of the plan and held its level. Its 13 rush plays gained 35 yards, -1.8 EPA, -0.14 a play against -0.15 through Week 5, and 38.5% succeeded. Dameon Pierce ran 12 times for 35 and scored from 2 yards late in the second quarter.

The pass defense held its usual line and lost the third downs that mattered. Carolina's 41 pass plays were worth +0.12 EPA apiece, against +0.13 allowed through Week 5; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. Only 39% succeeded, and the defense got off the field on 10 of 17 third downs. Bryce Young completed 20 of 39 for 281 yards, two touchdowns to Tommy Tremble and no interceptions. Nolan Smith sacked him once, and Jordan Davis and Jeremiah Trotter Jr. split a second at the 1. The two that got away hurt most: Tetairoa McMillan's 21-yard catch on third and 15 before halftime, 11.3 points of win probability to Carolina, the estimate of each side's chance to win, and Jalen Coker's 32-yarder on third and 8 from the Carolina 10 in the third. Coker caught 6 of 13 targets for 97.

The run defense gave way, and success rate shows it: 51.6% of Carolina's 31 rush plays were successful. They were worth +4.7 EPA, +0.15 a play, against essentially zero allowed through Week 5; here too, positive is bad. Chuba Hubbard carried 28 times for 120 yards and a touchdown. The run that cost most came with 1:03 left in the third, Carolina up 13-7, fourth and 1 at the Philadelphia 31: Hubbard went off left tackle for 19 yards to the 12, +2.9 EPA, and scored from a yard out early in the fourth for 19-7. Carolina missed the two-point try. After the last turnover on downs, Hubbard ran the clock down while Philadelphia spent all three timeouts.

The game turned in the minutes after Philadelphia got within 19-14. McKee's drive from his own 31 had turned on a 17-yard throw to Dontayvion Wicks on third and 5 and ended with a 19-yard touchdown to Smith on second and 6, +2.7 EPA and 7.6 points of win probability. The defense forced a three-and-out, and the punt was downed at the Philadelphia 48 with 9:46 left. On first down the snap was botched; center Jake Majors was charged with the fumble, McKee fell on it at the 36, and the play cost 6.9 points of win probability. Two snaps later, after an incompletion to Smith on third and 18, Braden Mann punted 8 yards. Carolina took over at the Philadelphia 48, Hubbard converted third and 1 with a 5-yard run, Cooper DeJean added 15 yards for unnecessary roughness, and Young found Tremble from 19 yards for 25-14. The last chance ended on fourth and 17 at the Carolina 49 with 4:32 left, a deep throw to Smith that fell incomplete.

Last week's notebook asked about a run game that gained 22 yards on 18 plays. It steadied without growing: 35 yards on 13 plays, -0.14 a play against -0.15 through Week 5, with the Eagles trailing all afternoon and passing 48 times. The one to watch next is the run defense, which went from essentially zero EPA a play allowed to +0.15 against Hubbard, and the five three-and-outs that left it on the field.

That's your Eagles, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Eagles on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._