Eagles 21, Cowboys 38 — Week 7: 18 Unanswered After 21-20

Philadelphia lost 38-21 to Dallas at Lincoln Financial Field on Monday, its fifth straight loss, and fell to 2-5. Tanner McKee played quarterback for a second straight week, with Jalen Hurts out of the lineup. The Eagles led 21-20 with 5:44 left in the third quarter; their last four drives ended in a punt, an interception, a turnover on downs and the final whistle.

The passing game was a little better than its own standard, and EPA per play says so: expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had its 37 pass plays at -3.4, -0.09 a play against -0.13 through Week 6. Only 35.1% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. McKee completed 23 of 35 for 211 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked twice. Makai Lemon caught 7 of 8 targets for 67 yards and the score, and Dallas Goedert 5 of 7 for 48. Third down went 5 for 12.

The run game played well above its own standard, and success rate measures the change: 44% of 25 rush plays succeeded, for 121 yards and two touchdowns, worth +2.5 EPA, +0.10 a play against -0.15 through Week 6. Saquon Barkley, back for the first time since Week 4, ran 7 times for 62 yards. On the second snap of the game, first and 10 at the Philadelphia 37, he went off left tackle for 29 yards to the Dallas 34, +1.7 EPA, and two plays later scored from 8 yards out for 7-3. Dameon Pierce ran 14 times for 47 and a 5-yard touchdown. Barkley did not get a counted carry after the opening play of the second half.

The pass defense was Muffed, and EPA per play allowed shows how far it fell: Dallas's 27 pass plays were worth +12.0 EPA, +0.45 a play against +0.13 allowed through Week 6, the most per play it has given up this season. On defense a positive number is bad. Dak Prescott completed 15 of 27 for 212 yards and three touchdowns, and the defense got no sacks and no interceptions. Down 7-3, third and 8 at the Dallas 31, Prescott found Ryan Flournoy for 35 yards, and George Pickens scored from 21 on third and 3 in the second quarter. Dallas converted 8 of 13 third downs.

The run defense gave up the most yards it has all season, and the yardage leads it: 204 on 38 rush plays, after no more than 132 in any of the first six games. They were worth +7.9 EPA, +0.21 a play against +0.03 allowed through Week 6, and half of them succeeded. Javonte Williams ran 25 times for 155 yards. Up 14-10 in the second quarter, the Eagles had Dallas at fourth and 1 at the Philadelphia 44 and Williams gained 4. Down 28-21 early in the fourth, second and 2, he ran 34 yards to the Philadelphia 25.

The game turned in the third quarter, after the Eagles' longest drive. Down 20-14, they went 84 yards in 17 snaps, converting fourth and 1 at the Dallas 39 on McKee's 15-yard throw to Lemon, +3.1 EPA and 13.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. On third and 4 at the 4, Lemon caught the touchdown for 21-20. Dallas answered with a 61-yard drive. On second and 1 at the Philadelphia 18, Riq Woolen recovered what was ruled a backward pass and returned it 73 yards for a touchdown, but replay reversed it to an incomplete pass, and CeeDee Lamb's 16-yard touchdown and Prescott's two-point run made it 28-21. Down 31-21 with 7:55 left, first and 10 at the Dallas 32, McKee threw short right for Goedert and DeMarvion Overshown intercepted at the 30: -5.4 EPA and 12.0 points of win probability.

Last week's notebook asked about a run defense that had gone from even to +0.15 EPA a play allowed. The answer was worse: +0.21 a play and 204 yards. The drops question waits for the charting. The one to watch next: whether a run game at +0.10 a play here, with Barkley back, is the start of something for an offense that had been at -0.15 on the ground through six weeks.

That's your Eagles, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Eagles on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._