Derrick Henry — Week 3: Twenty-Six Carries, Stopped at the One
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 28
Henry carried 26 times for 89 yards and two touchdowns, a 4-yarder on a direct snap and a 3-yarder, plus a 29-yard run in the third quarter. His four carries on third or fourth down with one or two yards to go converted none, including a fourth and one at the Dallas 1 that lost 3 after replay took away a touchdown, in a 34–31 win over the Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro.
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13 22 left in the game, Baltimore up 24 to 21, third and two at the Dallas two. Derrick Henry went at left guard and was ruled in for a touchdown; replay reversed it, ball at the one. Fourth and one, 13 oh seven left: Henry at left guard again, stopped for a loss of three. −4.5 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and −16 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. No Ravens pass or run all afternoon cost more of either. Dallas went 96 yards the other way to take the lead, and Baltimore still won it, 34 to 31, on a 56-yard field goal with one second left.
The line: 26 carries, 89 yards, two touchdowns, four first downs, nine of the 26 successful, −10.8 expected points on the carries; one target, caught for no gain. 13 before halftime for 47 yards, 13 after for 42. The touchdowns: a direct snap on second and four at the Dallas four with one 22 left in the first quarter, down 10 to nothing, four yards at left guard; and three yards around right end on first and goal at the three with 11 29 left in the half, the snap after a 49-yard pass interference penalty, which put Baltimore ahead for the first time. The 29 came on first and 10 at the Baltimore 49 with five 54 left in the third, up 17 to 13, the snap after Baltimore blocked a 59-yard Dallas field goal try; he was pushed out at the Dallas 22, +2.1, and the drive ended in a touchdown throw to Chris Moore.
Short yardage is where the afternoon turned. Four of his carries came on third or fourth down with one or two yards to go, and none converted: fourth and one at the Baltimore 30 with six 12 left in the first quarter, down three, no gain, and Dallas scored a touchdown on the short field; the two at the goal line; and third and one at the Baltimore 49 with eight 22 left in the game, down four, a loss of four and a punt. Those four carries cost more than 10 expected points between them; his other 22 came out about even.
The split: Baltimore had 36 designed runs, and Henry had 26 of them — Justice Hill five, Lamar Jackson four, Zay Flowers one.
Back in June the preview on Henry was about touchdowns: 16 rushing scores last season, second in the league, and an argument that the touchdowns were the part of his season least likely to repeat. Week 1 was 24 carries for a hundred 44 yards and three touchdowns in a win at Indianapolis. Week 2 was 16 carries for 68 and a one-yard score in a loss to the Saints, with one carry in the fourth quarter. Sunday brought the volume back — 26 carries, his most this season — at 3.4 yards a carry, his lowest. Three games: 66 carries, 301 yards, six rushing touchdowns. The scoring has not faded yet; the short-yardage snaps are the thing Sunday adds to the file, and three games settle little. Baltimore is home against the Titans on Sunday the fourth.
_Data via nflverse._
When Derrick Henry's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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