Derrick Henry — Week 5: Tying Two-Point Run, 102 Yards
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Oct 12
Henry ran 24 times for 102 yards against the Falcons, caught an 18-yard touchdown, ran in the tying two-point conversion with 40 seconds left and carried the overtime drive in a 30-23 win in Atlanta.
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Derrick Henry was in the middle of everything Baltimore needed against the Falcons: 24 carries, 102 yards, an 18-yard touchdown catch, and the two-point run that forced overtime. On the ground he was worth +0.4 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position.
The defining snap came with 40 seconds left in regulation. Baltimore had just scored to pull within 23-21, and Henry took the two-point try around left end to tie it: +16.0 points of win probability. Then he carried the overtime drive. At 23-23 he ran for 9 yards early in the drive, picked up 11 on second and 8 to the Atlanta 28 (+12.8 points of win probability), ran 7 yards to the 10 and 3 more to the 1 before Baltimore scored the winning touchdown.
His touchdown came through the air. Down 17-9 midway through the third quarter, second and 10 at the Atlanta 18, Tyler Huntley threw short left and Henry took it in: +2.6 EPA and +11.9 points of win probability.
It was a better day per carry than his first four weeks. Weeks 1 through 4 brought 7 rushing touchdowns but -4.5 EPA on 89 carries, with 45% of runs gaining positive EPA. This week 40% did, but the total turned positive. His 102 yards were his most since 144 against the Colts in Week 1.
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_Data via nflverse._
When Derrick Henry's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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